NBA

3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 3/6/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.

That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Picks

James Harden Over 8.5 Assists (+122)

We'll kick off our star props by targeting a plus-odds play.

James Harden is one of the most efficient players in the league when it comes to racking up assists. This season, he is averaging 8.3 dimes per game (sixth-most in the NBA).

Harden has dished out over 8.5 assists in 47.3% of his games this season. Upon joining the Los Angeles Clippers, he and the Clips got off to a slow start, but they've since turned things around. And dating back to the beginning of December, Harden is exceeding 8.5 assists at a 54.8% rate.

This makes the +122 odds, which imply just a 45.1% probability, fairly valuable.

The Clippers will visit the Houston Rockets, a team that owns the league's seventh-best defensive rating.

While the Clippers might not have the easiest of times on offense in this one, there is actually a positive correlation between Harden's assist production and a date with the top defensive teams.

Since the start of December, Harden has played in 18 games against teams that rank in the top 12 of defensive rating. In this split, he is averaging 9.0 assists and has surpassed 8.5 assists in 11 of the 18 games.

The Clippers are favored by 7.0 points against the Rockets. In 30 games where LAC has come in as the favorite but by just 8.0 points or less, Harden is averaging 9.1 assists. He exceeded 8.5 assists in 18 of those 30 contests.

FanDuel Research's projections, which are powered by numberFire, have Harden recording 9.0 assists tonight.

LeBron James Over 1.5 Made Threes (-162)

The odds for this prop may not excite you, but the market is probably giving us a kinder-than-should-be deal on LeBron James' made threes.

LeBron is averaging 2.2 three-point makes (3PM) per game. He has drained over 1.5 threes in 70.9% of his games this season. These -162 odds, meanwhile, leave us with just a 61.8% probability, proving there is value at this line.

If we check out a more recent sample, LeBron is clearing 1.5 made threes at a super high rate. He has nailed over 1.5 threes in 16 of his last 18 games (88.9% of contests).

He has a great three-point shooting matchup on deck, too. The Los Angeles Lakers will host the Sacramento Kings, a team that is surrendering the 10th-most 3PM in the NBA.

Sacramento is even more sacrificial when it comes to small forwards as they let up the third-most 3PM in the league to this position.

LeBron has been dominant against teams that surrender a high volume of 3PM to his position. He has played in nine games against teams (including the Kings) that rank in the top five of most 3PM allowed to small forwards. In this split, he is averaging 2.9 3PM per night and has exceeded 1.5 made threes in all nine games.

If we widen this split to account for the top 10 teams, LeBron is averaging 3.0 3PM and has made over 1.5 threes in 14 out of 15 contests.

Our projections also have faith in this prop, anticipating 2.3 3PM from LeBron tonight.

Stephen Curry Over 27.5 Points (-115)

Stephen Curry has been somewhat muted since the All-Star break. I think that changes tonight when the Golden State Warriors welcome the Milwaukee Bucks.

Curry is averaging 27.1 points this season, but the pace-up nature of this game could have him punching above his average.

The Warriors play at the 11th-fastest pace in the NBA while the Bucks play at the sixth-fastest.

Curry has participated in 16 pace-up games this season. In this split, he is averaging 31.4 points and has scored over 27.5 points in nine of these games.

The Bucks are letting up the fourth-most points per game to point guards. Over their last 15 games, they've surrendered the 10th-most 3PM in the league. We know Curry is a major threat from downtown, netting 54.5% of his points from behind the arc and shooting the three-ball at a solid 40.7% clip.

It helps that the Warriors will play this one at home. Curry is scoring just 25.8 points on the road while he's averaging 28.4 points at Chase Center.

With a 4.0-point spread, this game should be one of the more exciting clashes on today's slate, and I think Curry is primed to deliver.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.