3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Thursday 3/28/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Thursday 3/28/24

Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.

That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Picks

Zion Williamson Under 6.5 Assists (-128)

Brandon Ingram (knee) is out for the New Orleans Pelicans, but I wouldn't rely on Zion Williamson's assist production to see much of an increase.

On the season, Williamson is averaging 5.1 assists per game.

He has exceeded 6.5 assists in just 17 games. This means he is recording under 6.5 assists at a whopping 72.1% rate, but the -128 odds on this prop imply just a 56.1% probability.

I love the value of this prop, and it doesn't hurt that tonight's competition could prove to be tough.

Williamson will go up against the Milwaukee Bucks, a team that lets up the seventh-fewest assists to forwards.

This game features a 224.5 over/under, which isn't terribly low but isn't particularly high, either.

Williamson has suited up in 27 games that tipped off with a 228.0 over/under or less. In this split, he is averaging just 4.9 assists.

Even more encouraging? Williamson recorded under 6.5 assists in 20 out of 27 of these games (74.1% of contests).

The Bucks come into the night favored by one point. If we adjust the aforementioned over/under sample to account for only games that also featured a 5.0-point spread or closer, Williamson's assist average drops to 4.8.

Williamson has had an awesome second half and should play a big role with Ingram gone, but I don't think it will come in the form of above-average assist numbers.

FanDuel Research's projections are satisfied with the under. They have Williamson set to record 5.7 dimes in this one.

Jayson Tatum Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120)

Jayson Tatum is averaging 8.2 rebounds and has recorded over 7.5 rebounds in 56.7% of his games this season.

These -120 odds imply a 54.5% probability, so I'm fairly satisfied with the value of this prop.

But a date with a fast-paced Atlanta Hawks team is, first and foremost, catching my eye.

Atlanta plays at the 5th-fastest pace and Boston ranks just 18th in pace.

NBA stars and their stats can benefit from a faster-than-normal game, and Tatum is no exception.

He has played in 22 contests against teams that rank in the top 10 of pace. In this split, he is averaging 8.7 rebounds and cleared 7.5 boards in 14 of these games.

The Hawks are not a skilled rebounding team. They let up the 11th-most boards per game, and key injuries could make them even more vulnerable on the glass.

Saddiq Bey, Jalen Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu are all out for Atlanta. Behind Clint Capela, these three players serve as the lead rebounders for the Hawks, averaging a combined 21.9 boards per game.

Capela certainly has the size, but beyond him, the Hawks are left with a small team. In three games against Atlanta this season, Tatum has grabbed eight, nine, and nine rebounds.

Our projections anticipate more of the same tonight, forecasting Tatum to record 8.3 rebounds.

Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 Assists (-144)

The odds on this prop may seem boring, but I think it could be worthwhile to target Jaylen Brown over 2.5 assists.

On the season, Brown is averaging 3.6 assists per game.

He has dished out at least three dimes in 68.75% of his games this season. These -144 odds suggest just a 59.02% probability, so I'm seeing plenty of value in these odds.

Since the All-Star break, Brown has been firing on all cylinders. His 28.4 points per game average in this span is flashy, but he's also surpassed 2.5 assists in 10 out of 14 games since the break.

As mentioned, we should expect this game to run at a pretty fast pace, and more possessions means more assist opportunities.

This game features a 226.0 over/under, but numberFire's projections expect this to run over, tapping this game with a 236.32 total.

Brown has played in 27 games that tipped off with a 226.0 over/under or higher. In this split, he is averaging 4.0 assists and surpassed 2.5 dimes in 19 out of those 27 games.

Our projections like Brown in this market. They have him set to record 3.6 assists against the Hawks.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.