3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Friday 3/1/24

Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.

That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Picks

Luka Doncic Over 8.5 Assists (-140)

The Dallas Mavericks will take on the Boston Celtics tonight, and the market may be underselling Luka Doncic's assist capabilities.

On the season, Doncic is averaging 9.7 assists per game.

He has eclipsed 8.5 assists in 62.7% of his games, including 24 of his last 34 contests (70.6%). These -140 odds imply just a 58.3% probability, so the value with this prop is strong.

But beyond the value, we can find a very friendly matchup. The Celtics may be the best team in basketball, but that hasn't stopped them from giving up the seventh-most assists per game to guards.

Boston also lets up the fourth-most three-point attempts (3PA) per game. This should play into Dallas' hand, as they shoot the second-most threes and make the third-most threes in the NBA.

This is awesome news for Doncic. Every member of Dallas' roster -- with the exception of Doncic -- who plays at least 5.0 minutes per game and has attempted a three-pointer this season is being assisted on, at minimum, 72.1% of their three-point makes (3PM).

Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Green, and PJ Washington all rank in the top five of 3PM for this Dallas team. Each of these players is assisted on at least 87.2% of their 3PM.

We should see the Mavs fire away from downtown in this one, and I'd expect Doncic to be on the passing end for plenty of those plays.

FanDuel Research's projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- anticipate Doncic to record 9.7 dimes tonight.

Tyrese Haliburton Over 2.5 Made Threes (-136)

Tyrese Haliburton has an awesome three-point shooting matchup on deck against the New Orleans Pelicans.

This season, Haliburton is averaging 3.1 3PM per game.

He has nailed over 2.5 threes in 53.2% of his outings this season. But if we remove a seven-game stretch where Hali faced a minutes restriction due to injury management, then he is hitting over 2.5 made threes at a 60.0% clip.

This means that the -136 odds, which imply a 57.6% probability, are of value. But let's turn back to his opponent for the night, the Pelicans.

New Orleans is surrendering the second-most 3PA in the Association. The Pacers play at the second-quickest pace in the league, so we know they are always primed to get a ton of shots up.

The Pels are insistent on their opposers shooting outside shots in lieu of the paint, so I'd expect Hali to end this one with higher-than-normal shot volume.

Plus, it certainly doesn't hurt that New Orleans is allowing point guards, in particular, to have success from behind the arc. This season, the Pelicans have let up the fifth-most 3PM to point guards.

These teams met up this past Wednesday, and Haliburton went 3-for-8 from downtown. Our projections believe more of the same is in store for tonight, tapping Hali to drain 3.2 3PM.

Damian Lillard Over 22.5 Points (-115)

Damian Lillard is averaging 24.4 points per game and has exceeded 22.5 points in 60.0% of his games, but the market seems to think this occurrence has just a 53.5% probability (-115 odds).

He and the Milwaukee Bucks will visit the Chicago Bulls, and I have a hunch as to why the market may be undervaluing him in this matchup.

The Bulls and Bucks have met up twice this season. Dame shot an abysmal 17.6% from the field in each of these matchups, forcing him into a pair of low-scoring games.

But in reality, a date with Chicago is a solid foe for Lillard, so it could be fair to chalk up the two aforementioned games to unlucky shooting nights.

The Bulls cede the eighth-most points to guards. They've been a bit more sacrificial as of late, letting up the fifth-most points in the league to guards.

We know that Lillard loves to shoot threes, netting 36.0% of his points from long-range. Luckily for him, the Bulls not only surrender the most 3PA in the NBA, but they also give up the most 3PM.

Lillard seems primed to get going from downtown, and I also love his chances to utilize the foul line.

Few players draw more fouls than Lillard. He nets 27.8% of his points from behind the stripe and makes the fifth-most free-throw attempts per game in the NBA. Chicago, meanwhile, is allowing guards to shoot the seventh-most free-throw attempts each night.

All signs point to the Bulls posing as a friendly matchup for Dame, so I'm happy to take advantage of his points prop on a night when he is seemingly undervalued.

Our projections have Lillard scoring 24.1 points in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.