3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 3/26/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 3/26/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Jimmy Butler Over 27.5 Pts + Reb (-113)

Jimmy Butler has been uncharacteristically quiet in his last two games, shooting just 12 and 6 field goal attempts in each contest.

I think this all changes tonight when the Miami Heat take on the Golden State Warriors.

On the season, Butler is averaging 26.8 combined points and rebounds (PR). But with Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro sidelined, Caleb Martin and Jaime Jaquez Jr. entering as questionable, and the Warriors playing at a pretty fast pace, I think we could be in for a vintage Jimmy game.

Golden State plays at the 11th-fastest pace, while Miami plays at the second-slowest pace in the league. And the Warriors have been playing at an even higher tempo as of late, ranking seventh in pace across their last 15 games.

This puts Butler in a great spot to produce. He has played at least 30 minutes in 16 games against teams that rank in the top 12 of pace. In this split, he is averaging 30.8 PR and has exceeded 27.5 PR in 12 out of 16 games.

The Warriors let up the seventh-most points and the sixth-most rebounds to small forwards. They also give up the ninth-most free-throw attempts per game, which is great news for Butler, who nets 31.6% of his points from behind the charity stripe and ranks fourth in free-throw attempts per game.

Trey Murphy III Under 24.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-108)

Brandon Ingram (knee) is out for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. Ingram averages 20.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game, so his absence should result in more production from the role players on New Orleans.

However, I think the market may have made too high of an adjustment on Trey Murphy III's combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) prop.

On the season, Murphy is averaging 20.5 PRA. He has gone under 24.5 PRA in 36 of his 46 games (78.3% of contests).

Murphy's resounding hit rate on under 24.5 PRA might not mean much given Ingram's absence, but he hasn't exactly seen an increase in production with Ingram gone.

In four games without Ingram, Murphy is averaging just 18.3 PRA despite playing at least 30 minutes in all of these contests. He recorded over 24.5 PRA on just one occasion in this split.

On/off court stats don't vouch for Murphy, either. He's averaging 26.4 PRA per 36 minutes when sharing the court with Ingram, while he nets 26.9 PRA per 36 minutes when Ingram is off the court.

New Orleans will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder, a team that owns the fifth-best defense in the NBA. The Pelicans have won 9 of their last 11 games and come in as just 1.0-point dogs, but I'd expect Murphy to get lost in the shuffle as Zion Williamson and C.J. McCollum look to take over.

Accounting for Ingram's absence, FanDuel Research's projections still expect Murphy to record only 21.8 PRA this evening.

Anthony Davis Over 42.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-108)

The Los Angeles Lakers will visit the Milwaukee Bucks for the first game of an NBA on TNT doubleheader, but LeBron James has decided to take the night off.

This puts Anthony Davis in a blowup spot. In eight games without LeBron this season, Davis is averaging 44.6 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA).

In this eight-game span, Davis recorded a minimum of 39.0 PRA, so I like his chances to get going in what will be a showdown between two of the fastest teams in the league.

The Lakers play at the fourth-fastest pace, while Milwaukee plays at the fifth-fastest pace.

Davis has been unreal in fast-paced games. In 18 games against teams that rank in the top 10 of pace, he is averaging 45.3 PRA and cleared 42.5 PRA in 13 out of 18 games.

I don't know what's more encouraging -- LeBron's absence or a fast game -- but either way, I can't get caught fading Davis in this spot.

Milwaukee lets up the 12th-most points and the fourth-most rebounds to centers per 36 minutes. Davis looks like he could have a field day in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.