3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 3/28/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 3/28/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Kristaps Porzingis Over 24.5 Pts + Reb (-115)

Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 27.2 combined points and rebounds (PR) per game and has exceeded 24.5 PR in 60.0% of his games this season.

And if we only account for games where Porzingis played more than 26 minutes, he is clearing 24.5 PR at a 70.7% rate.

So, why do these -115 odds imply just a 53.5% probability?

It's not like Porzingis has a tough matchup on deck. The Boston Celtics will take on the Atlanta Hawks, a team that struggles with the fifth-worst defensive rating in the NBA.

Atlanta isn't great at defending centers. They let up the 10th-most points and rebounds per game to this position.

The Hawks are also ceding the fourth-most three-point makes (3PM) per game and a poor three-point defense should be a welcome sign to Porzingis. Not only does he net 29.0% of his points from behind the arc, but he also shoots the three-ball at a 37.1% clip, which is pretty solid given his size.

This will be a pace-up game for Boston. They rank 18th in pace while Atlanta plays at the league's 5th-fastest pace.

Porzingis has played 18 games against teams that rank in the top 10 of pace (not including one six-minute game he left due to an injury). In this split, he is averaging 28.2 PR.

Simply put, I think the market has his PR prop set too low for this evening. FanDuel Research's projections expect Porzingis to net 26.1 PR in this one.

Khris Middleton Over 25.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-113)

Khris Middleton is averaging 24.6 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) this season, but that doesn't tell the whole story.

After undergoing knee surgery in the offseason, Middleton didn't see much floor time during the early months of the season.

However, he has been back to full play for quite some time and has been averaging 31.0 minutes since the All-Star break.

If we only look at the 30 games in which Middleton played at least 25 minutes, he is averaging 28.3 PRA. In this split, he eclipsed 25.5 PRA in 19 out of 30 games, missing by the hook on four occasions.

I think we're getting a great deal on his PRA prop, and I'd expect him to make some noise in tonight's matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans.

New Orleans has an awesome defense (sixth-best), but that hasn't stopped them from letting up the 9th-most points, 11th-most rebounds, and 10th-most assists to forwards each game.

The Pelicans also surrender the sixth-most 3PM per game, and we know Middleton is capable of getting going from downtown. He nets 34.1% of his points from behind the arc

The Milwaukee Bucks are favored by just one point in this one. In 11 Milwaukee games where either side came in favored by six or fewer points, Middleton is averaging 28.3 PRA and recorded a minimum of 24.0 PRA in this span (split account for games where he played at least 24 minutes).

Our projections like this prop, too. They forecast 26.0 PRA from Middleton this evening.

CJ McCollum Over 32.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-108)

Let's turn to the Pelicans and see which player could explode with Brandon Ingram (knee) out of the lineup.

This season, C.J. McCollum has played in eight games without Ingram. However, in one of these games, McCollum played just 15 minutes after leaving the game due to an injury.

But if we check out those other seven games, McCollum went scorched earth, averaging 37.9 PRA in this split.

The breakdown of his Ingram-less PRA numbers are as follows: 30 PRA, 45 PRA, 42 PRA, 40 PRA, 42 PRA, 32 PRA, and 34 PRA.

He's yet to have a poor performance without Ingram in the lineup, and it seems he has a great matchup on deck against the Bucks.

Milwaukee allows the fourth-most points and the second-most rebounds to shooting guards.

They've also been letting teams drain the third-most three-pointers across their last 15 games. McCollum shoots the three-ball at a 41.7% clip and nets a towering 53.9% of his points from downtown.

He's taken a minimum of eight three-point attempts in contests where Ingram was on the sidelines, and I would expect more of the same against a team that is struggling with one of the league's worst three-point defenses.

The pace of this game should boost McCollum's production. New Orleans ranks 16th in pace while the Bucks rank 5th in pace.

With Ingram out and a fast yet close game on tap, we shouldn't be surprised if McCollum takes over in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.