3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Wednesday 7/19/23

Value is king for DFS, and finding a diamond in the rough can be the ultimate difference-maker.

For hitters, we want players with the capacity to put up big numbers, favorable matchups, and a supporting cast that can increase their chances for runs and RBI. Looking at pitchers, strikeouts are king -- although, inning-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

Let's look at some of the top value plays for Wednesday's main slate on FanDuel, which begins at 7:05 p.m. EST.

Joc Pederson, OF, San Francisco Giants ($3,000)

San Francisco Giants outfielder Joc Pederson kicks things off for today's top value plays in DFS. Pederson's appeal is twofold: a tantalizing matchup at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, and his prowess against right-handed pitching.

To begin with, the Giants have the second-highest implied team total of the slate at 5.3 runs. After putting up 15 runs in the series' first two games, San Francisco now gets to face Graham Ashcraft in tonight's game three.

Ashcraft has been one of the kindest pitchers in the league toward opposing hitters -- especially at Great American. Among pitchers with at least 80 innings, Ashcrafts boasts the seventh-worst skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) at 5.08, in addition to an unimpressive .360 weighted on-base average and 15.9% strikeout percentage.

He's been even worse at home, recording a 7.16 ERA, .380 wOBA, and 1.84 HR/9. That bodes well for Pederson tonight considering Great American Ballpark is the third-friendliest park towards lefties, per Baseball savant.

Pederson has crushed righties all season, compiling a .352 wOBA and 46.3% hard-hit rate. Hitting fly balls at a 41.5% clip should do him wonders against such a home run-friendly pitcher, especially one that throws a cutter as much as Ashcraft.

Pederson should be salivating over the prospect of Ashcraft throwing his cutter at a 56% clip. He's posted a positive run value against cutters three years in a row and has a .366 wOBA against the pitch this season.

numberFire projects Pederson for 13.4 FanDuel points tonight -- their fifth-highest projection for tonight's slate. He deserves a look as a top value play tonight.

Kenta Maeda, P, Minnesota Twins ($7,200)

Looking at pitchers, Minnesota Twins righty Kenta Maeda is among the lowest-salaried pitchers you'll find that has the potential for a monster night. Although he's coming off a brutal start against the Oakland Athletics, he gets another pitcher-friendly matchup with the Seattle Mariners.

Maeda had looked sharp since returning from IL prior to his start against Oakland last week -- allowing just three runs and striking out 21 in 22 innings. He lasted just 3.0 innings against the A's but still flashed his strikeout potential with 6 Ks.

Those strikeouts are what we're interested in tonight. Seattle owns the second-highest strikeout rate in the league against righties at 25.6%. The Mariners haven't done much even when they've made contact, sitting in the bottom half of the league with a .307 wOBA.

Consequently, Seattle doesn't project for fireworks tonight with their implied team total set at a pedestrian 4.13 runs.

Pitch count is a concern for Maeda as he hasn't eclipsed 87 pitches yet this season. Those concerns are mitigated somewhat by the Mariners' ranking in the top half of the league in both out-of-zone swing percentage and total swing percentage.

Maeda is allowing a ton of hard contact this season and the Mariners record hard contact at the sixth-highest rate in the league. However, that's a calculated risk factoring in his enormous strikeout potential.

numberFire projects Maeda for 28.6 FanDuel points tonight -- the seventh-highest projection for pitchers and the most among pitchers with a sub-$9,000 salary. He's risky but no pitcher can match his potential return on investment tonight.

Tommy Pham, OF, New York Mets ($2,800)

Last but certainly not least, New York Mets outfielder Tommy Pham checks in as our final value play for Wednesday's slate. Pham's Mets take on the Chicago White Sox having just dropped 11 runs in yesterday's series opener.

The Mets have the third-highest implied team total of the night at 5.22 runs. They get an intriguing matchup against Chicago's Touki Toussaint -- a righty who's pitched well since being acquired by the White Sox but who also owns a 5.09 career ERA in limited action.

Toussaint's recorded a 3.38 ERA thus far but he's primed for some regression considering he's outperformed his expected (x) ERA and wOBA by significant marks.

The righty's curveball-heavy approach (35.1%) should be music to Pham's ears. This season, Pham has recorded an eye-popping .489 wOPBA and 66.7% hard-hit rate against curveballs.

He's had considerable success against righties this year, recording a .351 wOBA and a 40.4% hard-hit rate. In general, Pham's underlying numbers have been solid as he sits in the 96th percentile league-wide in average exit velocity, xwOBA, and xBA.

numberFire projects Pham for 12.5 FanDuel points tonight. Among sub-$3,000 hitters, that ranks as their fourth-highest projection of the slate. Given the potential for another Mets' offensive outburst, Pham's someone I'm all over as a value play.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.