3 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 7/10/24

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox, 7:11 p.m. ET

Red Sox -1.5 (+104)

The Boston Red Sox have advantages across the board tonight against the Oakland Athletics.

On the mound, Boston is giving the ball to Nick Pivetta, the owner of a 3.39 SIERA and 28.1% strikeout rate so far in 2024.

The A's are turning to lefty JP Sears, who has pitched to a 4.85 SIERA and 16.7% K rate this campaign.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 12th in wOBA versus southpaws (.315) while Oakland is 28th in wOBA against right-handers (.293).

The Sox also have an edge when it comes to the bullpen, with Boston's relievers checking in ninth in xFIP (3.88), compared to Oakland's 21st-ranked reliever xFIP (4.22).

As I said, Boston has advantages everywhere.

numberFire's MLB projections have Boston winning by a score of 6.26-4.02. The model also projects Boston to cover the run line 58.4% of the time. You could also opt to just take the Red Sox to win at -180. The -180 moneyline implies 64.3% win odds, but numberFire has Boston's win odds at 74.8%.

Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds, 7:11 p.m. ET

Rockies Over 3.5 Runs (-148)

The Colorado Rockies get an overall park factor downgrade whenever they're on the road, but it's not that bad of a drop today at Great American Ball Park, which is actually the best park for dingers.

They also get a friendly matchup against Frankie Montas. The Cincinnati Reds' right-hander is having a rough year, struggling to a 4.78 SIERA. Montas' best outing of the season came at Coors against Colorado (9 K over 7 shutout innings) because of course it did. But since that game, Montas has pitched to a 4.70 xFIP across his past five starts.

Montas has been especially bad against left-handed hitters, permitting a .365 wOBA and 1.71 homers per nine in the split -- which should spell trouble against Ryan McMahon, Nolan Jones and Charlie Blackmon.

It also helps the Rockies' offense that the wind is blowing out today in Cincy.

numberFire's model projects the Rox to plate 4.34 runs.

Miami Marlins at Houston Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

Astros -1.5 (+100)

Much like Boston above, there's a lot to like about the Houston Astros tonight in a home clash with the Miami Marlins.

Framber Valdez is toeing the rubber for Houston, and this is a great matchup for him as Miami is dead last in baseball with a .265 wOBA against southpaws.

Valdez should be able to take advantage as he's got a 3.81 SIERA and stellar 60.8% ground-ball rate. He's also been good at home lately, giving up just two earned runs over 14 innings across his last two home starts.

Miami is starting Bryan Hoeing in what is expected to be a bullpen game. Nine innings of Miami relievers puts Houston's offense in a great spot as the Marlins' bullpen isn't all that good, ranking 18th in xFIP (4.08) and 20th in K rate (22.4%). Miami's 'pen has a tall task versus a Houston offense that is sixth in wOBA (.324).

The Astros check a lot of boxes tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.