3 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 6/26/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles, 7:10 p.m. ET

Guardians +1.5 (-125)

For a potential postseason matchup, the Cleveland Guardians (51-26) are at Camden Yards for Game 3 against the Baltimore Orioles (49-30). Presently, the Guardians have won in each of the past two days, outscoring the O's 13-10.

The projected starters at Oriole Park on Wednesday are righties Grayson Rodriguez and Carlos Carrasco. Rodriguez has been solid for Baltimore in 2024, showing a 3.60 xFIP with 10.15 K/9. Meanwhile, Carrasco -- in his 15th MLB campaign -- owns a 1.38 WHIP.

The Orioles may have the starting pitching advantage, but Cleveland is undeniably hot. The Guardians have won seven consecutive games. Throughout that span, they boast a .889 team OPS on 6.57 runs per game.

Considering how hot the AL Central leaders are right now, I'll take the Guardians to cover the run line (-125 odds) tonight.

When looking at run line records (ATS), Cleveland is currently tagged with a 59.7% cover rate (46-31). Simply, that is the best clip in Major League Baseball.

Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

Over 9.0 (-110)

For a bit of interleague action, the Minnesota Twins (43-36) and Arizona Diamondbacks (39-40) are continuing their series from downtown Phoenix. In Tuesday's game, the D-backs emerged victorious by a score of 5-4.

The probable pitchers for Game 2 at Chase Field are Ryne Nelson and Simeon Woods Richardson. Nelson has earned a 4.67 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) for Arizona this year. Across the way, Woods Richardson shows a 4.16 SIERA.

In this matchup at 1,100 feet, I am wagering on the over for a second straight evening. These sides can both swing it, and 9.0 total runs does not seem too lofty in a lively ballpark; Chase Field displays a 105 park factor score in 2024.

To this point, the Twins have produced a collective .322 wOBA while the Diamondbacks are at .317 clip in the same metric. Both figures land within MLB's top dozen teams. In regards to scoring this season, these clubs are neck-and-neck. Arizona has plated 4.72 runs per game, and Minnesota has contributed 4.7 runs per game.

According to numberFire, over 9.0 (-110 odds) is considered a strong play for this contest. Their model projects there to be 10.5 runs for Wednesday's game and gives over bettors a 56.54% winning likelihood.

Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants, 9:45 p.m. ET

Cubs Moneyline (+108)

At picturesque Oracle Park, the Chicago Cubs (37-43) and San Francisco Giants (38-42) are set for Game 3 of 4. Weirdly enough, this is the second series in a week between these National League franchises, which will make for seven head-to-head games since last Monday.

Transparently, the Giants have beaten the same opponent in three consecutive contests only once this season, and that team was the lowly Colorado Rockies. I am targeting Chicago's moneyline, which is labeled with +108 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

As for who is toeing the rubber, expect to see rookie Hayden Birdsong and Hayden Wesneski. Birdsong will be making his MLB debut for San Francisco while Wesneski owns a 4.03 xFIP this season.

numberFire is offering support for Chicago here in multiple ways. Per numberFire's nERD-based baseball power rankings, the Cubs (-0.08 nERD) are positioned three places higher than the Giants (-0.23 nERD).

On numberFire's MLB game projections, the Cubbies are yielding 51.3% win odds. That is up from 48.1% implied at these +108 odds. Given the Giants inability to string wins together this year, I'll take Chicago as a slight underdog.

All customers get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game on June 26th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.