3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 7/9/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 7/9/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox

Red Sox Over 5.5 Runs (-120)

On a warm, humid night with winds blowing out at Fenway Park, expect the home side to make a statement in their series opener against the Oakland Athletics.

Oakland will send Joey Estes to the mound, and Estes has some concerns in his peripherals that could come home to roost in such a volatile environment for pitching. Estes' expected ERA (4.14 xERA) isn't shabby overall, but he's permitted a 51.5% flyball and 43.1% hard-hit rate allowed. That's a cocktail for homers that has been masked by an unsustainably low homer-to-flyball ratio (8.1% HR:FB).

He could regress as soon as tonight. The Boston Red Sox have posted a dominant 114 wRC+, .798 OPS, and .178 ISO against right-handed pitching in their home park over the past 30 days -- a significant improvement from how they fare against lefties.

Also, after Estes departs, the Athletics' bullpen has a hideous 4.96 xFIP in the past 30 days -- the worst mark in baseball. Boston likely won't be shut down by them, either.

numberFire projects Boston at 5.73 median runs in tonight's game. There's juice on six-plus, but it seems like the side in their significantly better split.

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

White Sox +1.5 (-125)

The 26-67 Chicago White Sox are never an easy bet, but Erick Fedde has had a season worth backing.

Fedde might get an All-Star nod if injury news changes the AL roster, but he's had an All-Star-level season for the Southsiders. Fedde's 3.13 ERA is supported well by a 3.57 xERA, and he's 70th percentile or better across MLB in walk rate (6.4%), hard-hit rate allowed (36.1%), and groundball rate (47.0%). The sinkerballer returned from a KBO season on a revenge tour.

He can duel Bailey Ober in this one. The Minnesota Twins' righty is no cupcake, either, posting a 3.59 xERA and 36.5% hard-hit rate allowed with a significantly higher K rate (26.5%).

There's a reason the Twins are favored; their offense (.872 OPS against righties in the past 30 days) has significantly outperformed the White Sox's (.639 OPS) of late in this split. However, in a close game with two quality pitchers, we're getting a run with this bet, and the Twins might be a bit down on firepower with Royce Lewis back on the shelf.

Massey Ratings expects Chicago to cover a bodacious 75.7% of the time at home tonight.

Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Moneyline (-106)

I'm not sure I expected to ever type this sentence to begin the season, but the Atlanta Braves can't hit righties at the moment.

Atlanta's .667 OPS against them in the past month is the fourth-worst mark in baseball, coinciding with Ronald Acuna Jr.'s absence. It's not ideal that they'll now have to face Zac Gallen in Phoenix.

The Arizona Diamondbacks' right-hander has picked up right where he left off before an IL stint, amassing 10.0 innings of three-run ball as he worked his pitch count up to 85 in his previous start against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Gallen's 3.83 xERA and 46.7% hard-hit rate allowed are a bit higher than his normal standard, but he's a trustworthy arm against a struggling offense.

Chris Sale (2.57 xERA) has been a better pitcher this season, but he'll also have a much tougher assignment. The Snakes have pummeled lefties for a .778 OPS in the past month of play (ninth-best in MLB). They also have struck out just 21.5% of time in those parameters.

When wrapping it together, I'll trust Gallen's career-long form in an elite matchup over Sale's recent form in a dicey road spot. The Arizona bullpen (4.28 xFIP in the last 30 days) isn't to be trusted, but I'll take the D-Backs to lead after five if this one doesn't push in a pitcher's duel.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.