MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 6/6/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Fernando Tatis Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+350)

The San Diego Padres will look to put up some runs and snap a losing streak on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

With a matchup against Slade Cecconi, offense should be top of mind for the Padres hitters, which leads me to Fernando Tatis Jr..

Over his last 10 games, Tatis has been absolutely crushing the ball, but he has just one home run to show for it. In these 10 games, Tatis has 13 batted balls with exit velocities of 100 mph or higher, including three last night!

He's not just blasting the ball right now, Tatis has done this the entire season with a 142 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .201 ISO, 34.0% hard-contact rate, and 19.6% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. This is why we've seen him hit 9 of his 10 home runs against righties.

When it comes to Cecconi, he's allowing a dangerous 56.0% fly-ball rate to righties this season, along with a 36.0% fly-ball rate, .448 SLG, and 1.96 HR/9.

All of this puts Tatis in a great spot, so I'll add Tatis To Record an RBI (+135), too.

Will Smith To Hit a Home Run (+420)

With plenty of power in their lineup, the Los Angeles Dodgers are always a potential source for home runs.

The Dodgers are on the road to close out their series against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who will have Bailey Falter on the bump tonight.

Falter has some decent surface-level numbers, but they don't tell the whole story. Against righties this season, Falter is allowing 1.41 HR/9, 4.84 xFIP, .347 SLG, 47.7% fly-ball rate, and 32.5% hard-contact rate.

This brings me to Will Smith, who is crushing lefties with 256 wRC+, .534 wOBA, .370 ISO, 49.0% fly-ball rate, and 46.9% hard-contact rate. Those are some elite numbers that put Smith in a fantastic spot to mash one tonight.

I'll add Smith To Record an RBI (-110), too.

Nolan Gorman To Hit a Home Run (+440)

Finally, Nolan Gorman is hot at the plate right now and will look to keep that going tonight.

Gorman comes in with six home runs in his last eight games and that trend could certainly continue tonight against Cal Quantrill.

This season, Quantrill has allowed a .393 SLG, 1.13 HR/9, 4.13 xFIP, 42.0% fly-ball rate, and 15.4% HR/FB ratio to lefties. It's nothing we need to be worried about and with how hot Gorman is at the plate, this should be a solid spot for him.

Gorman crushes righties with a 134 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .273 ISO, 44.3% fly-ball rate, 36.7% hard-contact rate, and 28.6% HR/FB ratio this season. This is why we've seen him hit 10 of his 14 home runs in this split. I'll add Gorman To Record an RBI (+145), too.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.