MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 6/7/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Davis Schneider To Hit a Home Run (+470)

The Toronto Blue Jays have good power in their lineup and a favorable matchup against the Oakland Athletics tonight.

The Athletics will send Hogan Harris to the bump tonight, a pitcher with a very small sample size this season, so we'll look at his career numbers between this season and last.

Over that time, Harris has allowed a .474 SLG, .346 wOBA, 5.09 xFIP, 1.62 HR/9, 47.5% fly-ball rate, and 32.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Add in a touch of wind blowing out in Oakland tonight and we have a good matchup to target.

We turn to Davis Schneider, who crushes lefties with a .234 ISO, .300 wOBA, 48.4% fly-ball rate, 32.3% hard-contact rate, and 20.0% HR/FB ratio. He gets the ball up in the air and that should only lead to good things for Schneider.

I'll add, Schneider to Record an RBI (+175), too.

Ian Happ To Hit a Home Run (+520)

With one of the best home run parks in the league as a backdrop, the Chicago Cubs could get the ball flying tonight.

That park would be the home of the Cincinnati Reds, where home runs should only be accentuated tonight with the wind blowing out to left field. This is a great overall game environment for scoring, so let's jump in.

Nick Lodolo will take the mound tonight, who comes in allowing a .338 SLG, 0.94 HR/9, 40.6% fly-ball rate, and 30.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

This leads me to Ian Happ, who has some interesting splits to look at. This season, Happ has a .120 ISO, 35.9% hard-contact rate, and 9.1% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers.

Those numbers don't jump off the page but if we look at his splits versus lefties in just away games, those numbers jump to a .179 ISO, 40.9% hard-contact rate, and 16.7% HR/FB ratio.

That is much more in line with what we are looking for when it comes to home run potential. I'll add, Happ to Record an RBI (+190), too.

Cal Raleigh To Hit a Home Run (+320)

The Seattle Mariners have a strong 4.65 implied run total and are on the road to visit the Kansas City Royals.

Let's keep things simple and target Daniel Lynch, who struggles big-time versus right-handed hitters this season. He comes in with a .371 SLG, 5.65 xFIP, 1.93 HR/9, 58.1% fly-ball rate, and 32.3% hard-contact rate in this split.

It's a truly solid spot to target given his propensity to allow fly balls, so we go to Cal Raleigh, who comes in with a massive .319 ISO, 62.5% fly-ball rate, 40.6% hard-contact rate, and 25.0% HR/FB ratio versus lefties.

The power is clear for Raleigh, so I'll add, Raleigh to Record an RBI (+110), too.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.