3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 6/28/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 6/28/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Rafael Devers To Hit A Home Run (+350)

Trailing a hot hand can oftentimes result in receiving unappealing home run odds, but that's not the case with Rafael Devers tonight.

Devers has slammed a home run in back-to-back games. These +350 odds imply a 22.2% probability, yet Devers has hit a home run in 23.5% of his games this season.

There's a tad of value on this line, and the Boston Red Sox slugger is in for a matchup that is hard to deny.

Following a pair of off days, Boston will meet up with Randy Vasquez of the San Diego Padres. The second-year major leaguer has been downright terrible against left-handed hitters -- enough to make me back a lefty at Fenway.

Dating back to 2023, Vasquez has pitched 33 2/3 innings versus lefties. In this split, he owns a 5.79 xFIP and a measly 10.8% K%. More importantly, lefties are marring Vasquez with a .349 BA, .582 SLG, and a monstrous 2.41 home runs per nine innings.

This is the perfect spot for Devers, who has been making contact to the tune of a 14.1% barrel rate, 53.5% hard-hit rate, and .297 ISO across the last 30 days of play.

On the season, he sports a .639 SLG (7th-best in MLB) and .337 ISO (10th-best in MLB) versus right-handed pitchers. He has hit 14 home runs in this split (tied for ninth-most in MLB) and is one of just three players to hit at least 13 home runs off of northpaws despite receiving fewer than 200 plate appearances against this handedness. The trend has been Devers' friend before, as he managed a six-game home run streak this past May.

FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a 30% Profit Boost on Same Game Parlays for today's MLB slate, and I'd consider building something around Devers and the BoSox, who have a slate-high 5.18 implied total in this one. Enmanuel Valdez is another lefty who can exploit this matchup while righty Tyler O'Neill could use the Green Monster to his advantage against a vulnerable Vasquez.

Taylor Ward To Hit A Home Run (+460)

Kenta Maeda will be on the bump for the Detroit Tigers tonight, and he's been struggling to the tune of a 6.00 ERA, 4.87 xERA, and 4.71 SIERA.

The opposing Los Angeles Angels, specifically their righty bats, should be in for a treat.

Maeda has let righties get off a .569 SLG, 42.4% fly-ball rate, and a towering 2.63 home runs per nine innings, which is the highest mark in baseball for starters who have pitched at least 25 innings in this split.

His 14.5% K% reinforces the unimpressive stuff while a more muted 6.8% walk rate lessens the risk of a free bag in lieu of a proper at-bat.

This brings me to Taylor Ward. Across the last 30 days of play, Ward has managed an 18.9% barrel rate, good for the seventh-highest in MLB. He's paired this with a 60.4% fly-ball rate, the second-highest percentage among players with at least 100 plate appearances in this span.

On the season, Ward owns a 50.9% flyball rate versus righties, the eighth-highest mark in MLB. He's shown great signs of power as of late and is in for a friendly matchup at Angel Stadium.

The kicker? We're getting a fair price on these odds despite an advantageous matchup. Ward has mashed at least one home run in 17.9% of his games this season, while these +460 odds imply a 17.8% probability.

Shohei Ohtani To Hit A Home Run (+520)

We should in no way be excited about the Los Angeles Dodgers' matchup for tonight, but this price on Shohei Ohtani's home run prop is unprecedented.

Ohtani has slammed 25 home runs this season (third-most in MLB) and has hit at least one dinger in 29.1% of his games. That pure hit rate would translate to roughly +240 odds, but instead, we are getting this at +520 odds (16.1% implied probability).

There is, of course, a reason for these high odds. LAD and Ohtani will meet up with Logan Webb, a pitcher who lets almost nothing get past him.

Webb is generating an intimidating 56.8% ground ball rate and 23.7% K% versus lefties, leaving this handedness with just a 20.0% fly-ball rate.

He surrenders a mere 0.43 home runs per nine innings, the third-lowest mark in MLB. While it's hard to speak ill of Webb, he has let up a trio of home runs across his last five games. He's also let up at least a 40.0% hard-hit rate in four of his last seven games.

It's hard to sell Webb in this spot, but we could consider Ohtani an outlier.

On the season, Ohtani sports a .729 SLG (best in MLB), .392 ISO (second), and a 47.5% hard-hit rate (third) against right-handed pitchers. He's hit 19 of his home runs against this handedness.

The San Francisco Giants' bullpen has been marked with 1.04 HR/9 (10th-highest), so perhaps Ohtani will see a decent home run opportunity past Webb.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.