3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Dinger Tuesday 5/21/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Tuesday's during the MLB season mean one thing -- Dinger Tuesday! Place a pre-live, straight "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game happening on May 21st. You’ll get Bonus Bets for each home run BOTH TEAMS hit in the game! See the promotions page for more information.

Home Run Props

Cody Bellinger To Hit a Home Run (+390)

With massive 25 mph winds blowing out at Wrigley Field, the ball should be flying tonight.

Extra wind is always a positive for hitters and when it's happening at Wrigley Field, we have to be targeting it for homers. The wind has been studied at Wrigley Field and it has been proven to have a significant effect on the ball compared to the average stadium.

It's a no-brainer to look for homers here and tonight we'll start with Cody Bellinger. He's been solid this season versus right-handed pitchers with a 117 wRC+, .333 wOBA, .247 ISO, 59.2% fly-ball rate, and 32.9% hard-contact rate. That massive fly-ball rate is exactly what we want to see when the wind is howling out tonight.

He's up against Charlie Morton, who comes in with a .404 SLG, .349 wOBA, 1.05 HR/9, 4.38 xFIP, 30.9% fly-ball rate, and 14.3% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed hitters.

The wind is a massive factor tonight that cannot be overstated. The hitters are primed for huge games where a simple fly ball could find its way over the fence. I'll add, Bellinger To Record an RBI (+105), too.

Ozzie Albies To Hit a Home Run (+420)

On the other side of the Chicago Cubs, we have Ozzie Albies of the Atlanta Braves.

Everything mentioned about the wind at Wrigley Field remains true here, so we'll take a look at Albies, who has some interesting underlying points to mention.

Albies got off to a good start this season then was hit with a toe injury which sent him to the Injured List. Since returning on April 26th, he has just one home run but some strong batted-ball numbers.

In just their recent series against the San Diego Padres, Albies had eight batted balls with exit velocities over 90 mph and four batted balls go over 300 ft, but all four were flyouts. In short, Albies is crushing the ball right now but he's simply not getting the results in the box score.

He comes in with a 48.9% fly-ball rate and a 31.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers, which should play well with the wind at Wrigley tonight. He's up against Javier Assad, who is allowing a .337 SLG, 0.74 HR/9, 42.6% fly-ball rate, and 6.9% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed hitters.

Assad is running on the good side of variance right now with so few of his fly balls ending up as home runs. Given the wind tonight, all of that could change in an instant.

I'll add, Albies To Record an RBI (+110), too.

Ryan O'Hearn To Hit a Home Run (+390)

Finally, we'll look to Ryan O'Hearn of the Baltimore Orioles.

The Orioles have one of the best home-run-hitting lineups in the league and when they're presented with a good matchup -- as they are tonight -- we could see a few long balls.

They are up against Lance Lynn, who struggles versus lefties with a .470 SLG, .359 wOBA, 1.46 HR/9, 4.68 xFIP, 43.0% fly-ball rate, and 11.8% HR/FB ratio.

We've targeted him for a few seasons and there's no reason to stop now if the fly-balls are still going to be there.

O'Hearn crushes righties with a 161 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .228 ISO, 38.5% fly-ball rate, and 34.1% hard-contact rate this season. All six of his home runs have come in this split, making it the clear spot to target. I'll add O'Hearn To Record an RBI (+125), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.