3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target For 2024 Opening Day

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Home Run Prop Bets

Opening Day is here! The MLB season gets underway with a full slate of games with a ton of options to consider. I'll be bringing this article every day and specifically focusing on home runs only. Some days it will be three players while some days it will only be two.

Home runs offer big odds and can be a ton of fun, but it's also a highly variable market. It's important to understand that these props are successful at a lower rate compared to normal player props.

Christian Walker To Hit a Home Run (+420)

The Arizona Diamondbacks open the season with a 5.11 implied run total at home and play host to the Colorado Rockies.

The Rockies will have Kyle Freeland on the mound, a pitcher we can look to target throughout the season. Last year, Freeland allowed a 5.38 xFIP, 1.94 HR/9, 40.6% fly-ball rate, and 41.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. He's right at the 40-40 line I look for, making this an ideal spot for Christian Walker.

Walker is a legit power-hitter and crushed left-handed pitchers last year to the tune of a 141 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .319 ISO, 48.6% fly-ball rate, 39.6% hard-contact rate, and 24.1% HR/FB ratio.

This matchup checks all the boxes we want to see for a potential home run matchup and it's a great spot for Walker to get the season started on the right foot. As usual, I'll add Walker To Record an RBI (+105), too.

Spencer Torkleson To Hit a Home Run (+350)

Next up, an emerging power-hitter from the Detroit Tigers.

That would be Spencer Torkelson, who is primed for a breakout season after posting 31 home runs last year. Torkelson ended 2023 with a 120 wRC+, .344 wOBA, .294 ISO, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 41.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. His hard-hit rate was also in the 94th percentile last year, according to Baseball Savant.

He's got a ton of power and can put that on display today when he's up against Garrett Crochet.

Crochet is a young pitcher for the Chicago White Sox who pitched only 12.2 innings last season, so we'll look to his career numbers, where we see a total of 73.0 innings pitched.

He's allowed a 34.1% hard-contact rate, 44.2% fly-ball rate, and 4.54 xFIP -- but only 0.57 HR/9 to righties in his career. That's rather interesting because the league average last year versus right-handed hitters was a 37.3% fly-ball rate and 1.22 HR/9 allowed.

Crochet has a higher fly-ball rate but is simply not allowing any home runs. That sticks out a bit and should indicate he is due for a bit of negative regression in the home run department.

I'll buy into Torkleson's power against a young and seemingly unproven pitcher.

Freddie Freeman To Hit a Home Run (+400)

Finally, we turn to one of the best hitters in the league, Freddie Freeman of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Freeman already has two games under his belt due to the series versus the San Diego Padres last week, but he wasn't able to make much of that with just a single hit. He's back at home where we see some nice weather and a bit of wind blowing out towards center field.

The Dodgers have a big 4.99 implied run total against the St. Louis Cardinals, who will have Miles Mikolas on the bump. Mikolas struggled last season versus lefties with a 4.87 xFIP, 1.41 HR/9, 41.7% fly-ball rate, and 34.9% hard-contact rate.

Freeman is always elite with his 158 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .218 ISO, 36.8% fly-ball rate, and 37.1% hard-contact rate versus righties last season. He hits in an elite lineup and will always be in a spot to see good pitches, so I'll add Freeman To Record an RBI (+110), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.