3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Friday 7/19/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as the guiding light for finding value, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Prop Best Bets

Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox travel to face the Los Angeles Dodgers, who will be putting righty Gavin Stone on the hill. That gives Devers a platoon advantage in a plus-homer park for lefties.

Devers' 9.7% barrel rate ranks him top-20 in the Majors, and he is sixth in expected slugging (xSLG) at .578.

With a home run projection of 0.35, Devers has a historical hit rate that suggests prop odds closer to +320.

Heliot Ramos to Hit a Home Run (+370)

Heliot Ramos owns a 9.9% barrel rate on the year and is good for a .504 xSLG.

The right-handed hitter faces another righty today: Cal Quantrill.

Quantrill does keep the ball on the ground more than the average pitcher but lets up hard contact at an average rate.

This game is in Coors Field, a top-eight park for dingers for righties over the last three years.

Michael Toglia to Hit a Home Run (+450)

On the other side of the game in Coors, Michael Toglia sets up well against lefty Kyle Harrison at some longer odds.

The switch-hitting Toglia has a 10.9% barrel rate over 116 batted balls. That ranks him ninth among hitters with at least 100 batted ball events.

His xSLG (.546) is outpacing his actual SLG (.503), as well.

Harrison is letting up a 7.3% barrel rate, which is 349th on the year among qualified pitchers.

numberFire's projection suggests around a 20.0% chance to dong based on historical rates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.