NCAAB

3 College Basketball Prop Bets for Tuesday 2/27/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
3 College Basketball Prop Bets for Tuesday 2/27/24

College basketball season is in full swing, and via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, we can get into the action by checking out prop bets for key games.

For bettors, numberFire's Matchup Heat Map helps identify favorable game environments, while KenPom and Sports-Reference offer a wide range of team-level statistics. We can also turn to Bart Torvik and RealGM for advanced player stats and splits.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and dive into our wealth of statistical data to find today's best prop bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Prop Bets

No. 16 Kentucky at Mississippi State

Tolu Smith Over 16.5 Points (-118)

Mississippi State big man Tolu Smith is coming off a pair of big scoring nights and is in a good spot to go over his points prop tonight, currently set at 16.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Smith has appeared in just 15 games after missing the first two months of the year, but he's flashed that same scoring ability that made him an All-SEC First Teamer last season. He's gone over 16.5 points seven times and averages 16.8 points per game on the year. Smith's 30.6% usage rate leads the SEC.

Tolu enters tonight following 19- and 24-point games. He attempted 14 and 15 shots in those two, getting to the free throw line a combined 19 times.

The matchup is there for him to have another big performance. Kentucky has the SEC's second-worst scoring defense, allowing 81 points per game in conference play. Smith torched them for 26 points when they faced off in January, making 11-of-14 shots at the rim. That's eerily similar to the 22 points and 8-of-8 at-rim shooting he put on UK last year.

Interior defense hasn't been a strength for the Wildcats. Per Bart Torvik, they've allowed opponents to shoot 58% on close twos. Kentucky has given up 32.7 points in the paint per game, 21st-most among 94 high-major teams.

Tolu Smith has thrived in his last two matchups with the Wildcats, and Kentucky-Mississippi State Over 155.5 is one of today's top college basketball picks. Smith should take advantage of that high total, cruising past his own 16.5-point prop in the process.

Georgia at LSU

Noah Thomasson 3+ Made Threes (+118)

Georgia guard Noah Thomasson has seen his usage rate skyrocket to 29.5% over the last three games. He's attempted 28 threes over that span, so we can look for him to drain three triples against LSU tonight.

Thomasson's has made 11 threes over this three-game stretch, nailing at least three triples twice. He's averaging 2.1 threes per game at a 37% clip on the year, but he's no stranger to prolific nights from distance. He's hit at least three threes in 10 of 27 games overall and in 7 of 14 conference games. Thomasson only drained two threes when he faced LSU earlier in the year, but it wasn't due to a lack of attempts. He made 2-of-6 threes in that one, an encouraging sign for tonight's prop.

Though his efficiency comes and goes, he hasn't stopped putting up shots. Thomasson has attempted 11 triples in three of his last five games, two of which were on the road.

That high rate of outside shots should come in handy against LSU. Over 41% of opponents' shot attempts have come from beyond the arc, the second-highest rate in the SEC. They've allowed 8.4 threes per game in conference play, tied for third-most.

Noah Thomasson's recent production has me eyeing the over on his points prop (13.5), too. He's cleared that mark in four of his last five games and 14 times overall. However, he also drained three threes in 10 of those 14 games. With that in mind, I'll take the better odds with his threes prop and bank on Noah Thomasson to stay hot from deep.

Penn State at Iowa

Ben Krikke Over 12.5 Points (-110)

Iowa is tied for the slate's highest implied total (85), so it makes sense to target some of their point props. Hawkeye big man Ben Krikke averages 14.3 points per game on the year, but his points prop is just 12.5 on FanDuel. With an advantageous matchup on deck, Ben Krikke is in a nice spot to go over that mark.

Looking at Penn State, the Nittany Lions have the Big Ten's third-worst scoring defense and play at the conference's second-fastest pace. They gave up 89 points to Iowa earlier this month and have allowed the third-highest effective field goal percentage in Big Ten play.

There aren't many areas Penn State doesn't struggle defensively, but they're especially vulnerable inside. They've allowed the sixth-most points in the paint (35.4 per game) among 94 high-major teams, while 40% of opponents' shot attempts have come at the rim. They've allowed a 62% at-rim field goal percentage, the ninth-highest among high-majors.

Ben Krikke should take full advantage of those interior struggles. Over 44% of his shot attempts have come at the rim this season, and he's shooting a clean 67% on close twos. He already torched Penn State once this season, scoring 22 points on 10-of-18 shooting.

It helps that Krikke is coming off a pair of strong outings. He scored 15 in their most recent game at Illinois and 18 the game prior at Michigan State. Both of those teams feature better defenses than Penn State, so he's well-positioned to say hot tonight and hit the over on his points prop.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.