3 Busts to Avoid at Tight End: T.J. Hockenson, Darren Waller Could Underwhelm

The tight end position is arguably the most difficult position to get right in all of fantasy football.

In recent years, you've pretty much had to either take Travis Kelce early or fade the position until late in the draft to reap any kind of value out of that slot in your fantasy lineups.

Fantasy managers are constantly in search of the next tight end to join Kelce's lonely tier of elite numbers, but apart from a few exceptions, we haven't seen many other tight ends rise to the occasion.

Taking a gamble on possible tight-end breakouts can be costly in drafts. The middle rounds of fantasy drafts are filled with TEs who have top-tier upside at the position but rarely meet those standards by the end of the season.

Using up valuable draft capital on a player who underperforms can be a huge blow for your fantasy team, and these tight ends might be the next batch to disappoint.

All average draft position (ADP) data comes from FantasyPros and is for half-PPR formats.

Fantasy Football Tight End Busts

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

ADP: 42nd overall (TE#3)

The Minnesota Vikings acquired tight end T.J. Hockenson from the Detroit Lions near last year's trade deadline, and for the rest of the season, Hockenson was really good. So why should you fade him this year if he was able to put up solid numbers despite switching teams last year?

Frankly, it's nothing against Hockenson -- he's a good player. It's just that using a fourth-round pick -- which is what it currently takes to get him -- is really tough to stomach given what we've seen from Hockenson over the course of his career.

After landing with the Vikings, Hockenson averaged just under 10 half-PPR points per game last year. And that's good! But you want your early-round fantasy picks to be more than just good. You want them to have a chance to become elite. And Hockenson is more likely to backslide into being just an above-average tight end than he is to join the true top tier at the position.

A huge portion of his production with the Vikes last season came against the New York Giants. Two of his three touchdowns as a Viking came against Big Blue. Both of his 100-yard games as a Viking came against them, as well, with one occurring in the postseason.

In all, Hockenson played 11 games with Minnesota (counting the playoffs), and he surpassed 70 yards in just one outing that came against a team other than the Giants.

On top of that, there's added competition for targets this year with first-rounder Jordan Addison in the fold.

In my eyes, for Hockenson to justify his fourth-round ADP, he needs to finish the season closer to an elite TE than the midrange ones going after him. I don't think I want to bank on that happening.

With players like Justin Herbert, Amari Cooper and Dameon Pierce going in Hockenson's ADP range, I have a hard time taking the Vikings' TE in drafts.

Darren Waller, New York Giants

ADP: 65th overall (TE7)

Speaking of the Giants, Darren Waller is another tight end I am fading at his ADP.

Waller is -- by all reports -- having an incredible camp this summer, and the hype about him from the team is overwhelmingly positive. That hype, plus his new offensive environment, has caused his ADP in fantasy drafts to spike up to 65th overall.

On paper, Waller has a shot to lead the Giants' offense in most receiving categories this year. The G-Men needed a playmaker, and Waller, when he's at his best, can be that guy.

But we haven't seen Waller be that guy in a little while now.

He was truly one of fantasy football's top options in 2019 and 2020, putting up an elite 197 catches for 2,341 yards and 12 touchdowns over those two seasons. In the seasons since, though, the veteran has dealt with repeated injuries, playing in just 20 of 34 possible games.

Underneath the hood, those injuries have seemed to take a toll on his efficiency. Just ahead of his incredible 2019 breakout, Waller posted a clip of 2.59 yards per route run (YPRR) with the Raiders in 2018 -- an elite mark. His YPRR has dipped in each successive season since.

In his two elite campaigns, he maintained top-notch rates of 2.42 and 2.28 YPRR. It dropped to 1.74 in 2021 and to 1.58 last year. To be fair, 1.58 was still a top-10 mark among qualifying tight ends last year, but it is a far cry from the super-efficient playmaker we saw in 2020.

While Waller could still rack up solid volume by default thanks to the lack of top-notch playmakers at receiver for the Giants, it's fair to wonder how much upside there really is for a pass-game piece in this offense. A year ago, the Giants had the seventh-lowest pass rate (50.0%) and ran through Saquon Barkley.

Given Waller's ADP, you're investing fairly significant draft capital to land him this year, and you're banking on him to bounce back after two meh seasons. I'm not sure Waller can do it, and if he still has a top-level fantasy season in him, I'm not sure this Giants offense is the place for it to come out.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans

ADP: 118th overall (TE12)

With this one, the opportunity cost isn't nearly as great as Chigoziem Okonkwo is going outside the top 100 picks. That said, it's probably going to be hard for Okonkwo to find consistent fantasy success this year on the Tennessee Titans.

"Chig" was an incredibly fun player to watch on an otherwise un-fun Titans team last year. As a relatively unsung rookie, he surprisingly finished second on the team in most receiving metrics -- racking up 32 catches, 450 yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns while out-producing first-round pick Treylon Burks in the process. The Titans were a tough team to watch as they struggled to a 7-10 record, but Okonkwo made watching them a little easier.

Okonkwo's success came on the back of his efficiency. While he was not a full-time player for most of the year -- he never played more than 60% of the Titans' offensive snaps in a single game -- he led all tight ends across the entire league in yards per route run with an elite 2.61 mark. By comparison, Travis Kelce's 2.23 YPRR rate finished second, almost a full half-yard behind Okonkwo's impressive rate -- although Kelce did that on way more volume.

Rookie tight ends almost always struggle, so when someone like Okonkwo performs well in Year 1, we absolutely have to take notice.

But the volume might not be there for Okonkwo to put up quality fantasy numbers in 2023.

The aforementioned Burks missed six games due to injury last year. When he played, Burks flashed, at times, and could be in for a good 2023 as he's been generating buzz at camp. Oh, and the Titans signed DeAndre Hopkins, a guy who has been a target hog wherever he's gone.

That's two players who figure to command targets, and this is a Tennessee offense that had the fourth-highest run rate (51.6%) a year ago.

Fantasy is about volume, and while Okonkwo might be a good player, it's going to be hard for that to result in eye-catching fantasy numbers if he's the third pass-game option in a run-first offense. The upside just isn't there.

Drafting Okonkwo at his current ADP is understandable given the elite efficiency he posted as a rookie, but he might wind up being nothing more than a streamer in 2023.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.