3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 8/28/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Michael Harris II to Hit a Home Run (+460)

It was a rough first half of the season for Michael Harris II, but he's looking to finish strong despite the Atlanta Braves posting a disappointing 61-72 record up to this point. After logging a .360 wOBA, 132 wRC+, and .226 ISO in July, Harris is following that up with an impressive .400 wOBA, 159 wRC+, and .291 ISO in August.

On Thursday, Aaron Nola (5.05 xERA and 9.1% barrel rate) is slated to make his third start since returning from a stint on the injured list, and he's surrendered eight earned runs and two homers across his first two starts back. Additionally, Nola is struggling against lefties, permitting a .388 wOBA, 2.78 HR/9, and 42.2% flyball rate in that split (compared to a .352 wOBA, 0.81 HR/9, and 18.2% flyball rate to righties).

Besides Nola's woes versus left-handed hitters, the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen has produced the 6th-worst HR/9 (1.50) and 11th-worst barrel rate (7.7%) over the last 30 days, so they've been susceptible to the long ball recently. With winds also blowing out to right field at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, that favors a left-handed slugger like Harris in a positive matchup.

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Even though Juan Soto was unable to come through for us on Wednesday to hit a dinger, we're going right back to the All-Star outfielder on Thursday. Following a rough July -- at least for his standards -- where he tallied a .317 wOBA, 106 wRC+, .210 ISO, and 28.6% strikeout rate, Soto has had a solid showing in August, earning a .396 wOBA, 161 wRC+, .239 ISO, and 20.4% strikeout rate.

Adam Mazur is expected to be recalled from Triple-A to start for the Miami Marlins on Thursday, and in his lone start this season back in June, he coughed up four earned runs and a home run against the Phillies. Aside from Mazur sporting a dismal 1.76 HR/9 in 107.1 innings pitched at the Triple-A level this year, he notched a 1.60 HR/9 and 45.1% flyball rate across 33.2 innings pitched for the San Diego Padres in 2024.

When it comes to splits, Mazur is allowing a .433 wOBA, 1.80 HR/9, and 43.5% flyball rate to left-handed batters throughout his career. And once Mazur exits the contest, he'll hand the ball to a Miami bullpen that has the worst SIERA (5.01), ninth-worst HR/9 (1.43), fifth-worst barrel rate (9.5%), and eighth-highest flyball rate (42.5%) over the last 14 days.

Trent Grisham to Hit a Home Run (+400)

You could make an argument to take anyone from the New York Yankees in the home run market right now, but I like the idea of backing Trent Grisham out of the leadoff spot on the visiting team, increasing his chances of seeing five-plus plate appearances.

Grisham is also surprisingly posting better metrics on the road than at home despite benefitting from the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, registering a .388 wOBA, 151 wRC+, and .243 ISO on the road (compared to a .328 wOBA, 111 wRC+, and .201 ISO at home).

While Grisham got off to a hot start this season with a .425 wOBA, 177 wRC+, and .347 ISO in March/April, August has been his second-best stretch of baseball this year, notching a .380 wOBA, 146 wRC+, and .264 ISO this month. Davis Martin (4.60 SIERA and 9.8% barrel rate) is slated to be on the bump for the Chicago White Sox, and Grisham is recording a .253 ISO or better and a 14.7% barrel rate or better against Martin's three primary pitches (four-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter) versus left-handed hitters in 2025.

Up to this point, Martin is giving up a .341 wOBA and 1.59 HR/9 to lefties, and those numbers blossom to a .362 wOBA and 2.13 HR/9 to left-handed batters when he's pitching at home. The White Sox are another bullpen unit we can target, as their relievers are tallying the fifth-worst SIERA (4.31) and eighth-worst HR/9 (1.43) across the last two weeks.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.