3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 8/29/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Ben Rice to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Picking a single player from the New York Yankees to hit a homer is tough right now, and despite being torn between Ben Rice and Jazz Chisholm Jr. in Friday's contest, I give the slight edge to Rice with slightly longer odds and the fact he'll be hitting higher in the order. Although it's a small sample of only 32.1 innings pitched for Yoendrys Gomez this season for the Chicago White Sox, the right-handed hurler is permitting a .355 wOBA, 1.69 HR/9, and 44.4% flyball rate to left-handed hitters (compared to a .287 wOBA, 0.55 HR/9, and 46.7% flyball rate to right-handed hitters).

As for Rice, the hard-hitting lefty is tearing the cover off the baseball recently, logging the second-highest average exit velocity (97.9 MPH), third-best barrel rate (25.8%), third-best hard-hit rate (64.5%), and second-best ISO (.432) across the last 14 days. Rice has also been hitting out of the two hole for the New York Yankees when they face a right-handed starter -- right ahead of Aaron Judge -- so his chances of seeing five-plus appearances on the road versus the White Sox are fantastic.

Aside from Rice hitting two dingers over his last three outings, 9 of his last 11 batted balls that have been put in play have traveled at 100-plus MPH, and somehow only two of them have gone over the fence. With Gomez not pitching more than five innings in any of his appearances this year, it's worth noting that Chicago's relievers have the seventh-worst SIERA (4.25) and eighth-worst HR/9 (1.47) in the last 14 days.

Vinnie Pasquantino to Hit a Home Run (+470)

It's always tough trying to bet homers at Kauffman Stadium (26th in home run park factor over the last three seasons), but it's also impossible to ignore what Vinnie Pasquantino is doing to baseballs right now. Across the last 14 days, Pasquantino has tallied the 22nd-highest average exit velocity (92.9 MPH), 9th-best barrel rate (22.5%), and 9th-best ISO (.400) in baseball during that span.

On Friday, Pasquantino will get to go up against Chris Paddack, who resides in the 18th percentile in xERA (4.83), 21st percentile in hard-hit rate (44.3%), and 23rd percentile in groundball rate (36.6%). Paddack is also coughing up 1.79 HR/9 and a 48.0% flyball rate to lefties this season, and those metrics grow to 2.45 HR.9 and a 50.4% flyball rate whenever he's facing left-handed batters on the road.

The pitch mix also favors Pasquantino in this matchup, as he's posting a .278 ISO or better and 11.5% barrel rate or better versus two of Paddack's three primary pitches (four-seam fastball and curveball) against left-handed hitters since the start of the 2025 campaign. And once Paddack hands the ball off to his relievers, the Detroit Tigers' bullpen has recorded the 2nd-worst SIERA (4.45) and 11th-worst HR/9 (1.34) over the last month.

Michael Busch to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Despite the Chicago Cubs spiraling a bit over the last month or so, Michael Busch continues to be a reliable source of power at the top of the order versus right-handed pitching. Against righties this season, Busch is producing a .380 wOBA, 148 wRC+, .261 ISO, and 43.6% flyball rate, and those numbers blossom to a .389 wOBA, 155 wRC+, .318 ISO, and 48.7% flyball rate when he's facing a righty on the road.

At the moment, German Marquez is expected to be activated from the injured list on Friday for the Colorado Rockies, and he's sitting in the 12th percentile in xERA (5.16), 9th percentile in hard-hit rate (47.4%), and 26th percentile in groundball rate (37.4%). Aside from Busch likely batting leadoff at Coors Field, Marquez is giving up a .392 wOBA, 1.59 HR/9, and 41.1% flyball rate to lefties in 2025.

Marquez did reach 76 pitches in his last rehab start, but if he's operating on a pitch count in Friday's game, it's worth mentioning that Colorado's relievers have accrued the seventh-worst SIERA (4.05), fifth-worst HR/9 (1.58), and ninth-highest flyball rate (40.4%) over the last 30 days. Just to improve Busch's case even further, he's sporting a .273 ISO or better and 12.5% barrel rate or better against two of Marquez's three primary pitches (four-seam fastball and sinker) versus left-handed sluggers since the start of the season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.