3 Best College Football Bets and Player Props for BYU at Texas Tech

College football's top matchup of Week 11 is a top 10 clash between the No. 7 Brigham Young Cougars and No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Big 12 has flown under the radar this season, but both of these teams have postseason aspirations with BYU holding +172 odds to make the College Football Playoff while Texas Tech carries a -325 line. The two are favored to win the Big 12, too, for the Cougars sport +330 odds to win the Big 12 Championship compared to the Red Raiders' -175 line.

As the Big 12 title odds suggest, Texas Tech is a notable 10.5-point favorite over BYU. With an upset win, the Cougars would cause a major shakeup in the Big 12, likely becoming the favorite to win the conference. What should we expect from Saturday's matchup that's kicking off at 12:00 p.m. ET?

All college football betting odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

BYU at Texas Tech Betting Picks

Under 52.5 (-115)

After exiting October 25's win over Iowa State with a shoulder injury, BYU running back LJ Martin is expected to play on Saturday. Martin has been the heartbeat of this offense, averaging 98.6 rushing yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry. The Cougars' identity is running the rock, carrying a 57.2% rush-play rate (28th).

This has led to BYU carrying one of college football's slowest paces, ranking in the 81st percentile for the most seconds per play. With their star running back healthy, the Cougars will likely continue to lean on the run.

Texas Tech's defense will be a stiff test, though, for Game On Paper has the Red Raiders ranked sixth in NET expected points added (EPA) per play allowed. This coincides with an elite rush defense, yielding only 2.4 yards per carry (third-fewest) and the fifth-fewest EPA per rushing attempt.

Key downs could be a struggle for the Cougs, too. They rank 75th in third down conversion rate while Tech is 16th in third down conversion rate allowed.

BYU's defense is also equipped to take away the Red Raiders' strength on offense. Texas Tech ranks 55th in EPA per dropback compared to 118th in EPA per rushing attempt. The Cougs are best at slowing the pass, limiting opponents to 6.5 yards per passing attempt (29th) while sitting 28th in EPA per dropback allowed.

With each defense holding the keys to limiting the opposing offense's strength, we could be looking at an under. BYU also touts an excellent third down defense, ranking 30th in third down conversion rate late. Third down woes rounds out our expectation for few points.

Cameron Dickey Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

While the Red Raiders rank outside the top 100 in EPA per rushing attempt, they still average 4.5 yards per carry (45th). Running back tandem Cameron Dickey (5.6 yards per carry) and J'Koby Williams (5.7 yards per carry) are capable of finding success on the ground.

BYU's clear weakness on defense is against the ground game when it gives up 4.2 yards per rushing attempt (61st) and 148.6 rushing yards per game (61st). Sitting 80th in EPA per rushing attempt allowed, Texas Tech probably won't shy away from attacking this rush defense.

With that said, I'm expecting Dickey to go over 68.5 rushing yards. Over the last four games, he's totaling 16.0 rushing attempts per game compared to Williams' 8.3 per contest. Considering Williams carries a 63.5 rushing prop, Dickey's line seems like a no brainer considering the difference in usage.

The Red Raiders leaning into the run game should further slow the pace, as well, providing more evidence for an under pick.

Bear Bachmeier Over 192.5 Passing Yards (-114)

As 10.5-point underdogs, BYU could be playing from behind for most of Saturday's matchup.

BYU is capable of finding success through the air, averaging 8.1 yards per passing attempt (34th) while ranking 43rd in EPA per drop back. Following a pair of underwhelming showings in Week 6 and 7, quarterback Bear Bachmeier has posted player grades of 82.4 and 85.2 in the last two (via Pro Football Focus).

With an average depth of target (aDOT) of 9.3 yards on the season, Bachmeier has a tendency to push the ball downfield. That's been even more of the case over the previous three with an average aDOT of 10.9 yards.

PFF credits the Red Raiders with the second-highest pass rush grade in college football. Bachmeier will need time in the pocket to hit big plays downfield, and the Cougars have the answer by ranking 23rd in pass block grade while allowing the 24th-lowest sack rate.

With a negative game script likely ahead, I believe Bachmeier has enough to go over his passing prop.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.