2026 Rebel Stakes Betting Odds and Contenders Preview

Key Takeaways:

• The Rebel Stakes, which began as the Rebel Handicap in 1961, shapes as a high-quality, pace-driven Kentucky Derby prep where trip, timing, and late stamina should decide the outcome.
• With multiple forwardly placed runners and proven closers, horses capable of stalking just off the pace and finishing strongly hold a major tactical edge.
• Strategic Risk offers prime upset value at double-digit odds, cutting back to his preferred stalking trip with a pace setup that suits his late kick.
• Silent Tactic enters in peak form, thriving at Oaklawn and projecting a clean late-running trip into what should be honest fractions.
• Class President brings serious upside stretching to two turns, with pedigree, connections, and tactical speed aligning for a breakout performance.

The Oaklawn card on Sunday, March 1, features the Rebel Stakes (G2): a 1 1/16-mile dirt race that offers a cool $1 million purse and 50-25-15-10-5 Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers. The horse who finds the winners’ circle in the Rebel is virtually assured a spot in the Kentucky Derby, and others who run well will also be well on their way if they run well in another Kentucky Derby qualifying race.

The race drew a mix of Oaklawn horses and shippers: ten entered, though nine are expected to run as Bravaro is expected to run at Gulfstream in the Fountain of Youth (G2) instead. Both winners of earlier preps at the track, Smarty Jones winner Strategic Risk and Southwest (G3) winner Silent Tactic, line up for the Rebel. Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner Litmus Test and Breeders’ Futurity (G1) runner-up Blackout Time bring graded-stakes class.

The most important winner of the Rebel so far is American Pharoah (2015), who began his sophomore campaign in the race for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert and went on to be the first Triple Crown winner since 1978. Other important 21st-century winners of the Rebel Stakes include Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Smarty Jones (2004); Preakness Stakes winner, Belmont Stakes runner-up, and two-time Horse of the Year Curlin (2007); and sophomore champion Will Take Charge (2013).

Rebel Stakes 2026 Information

• Race Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026
• Track: Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort
• Post Time: 5:23 p.m. Central Standard Time
• Distance: 1 1/16 miles
• Age/Sex: three-year-olds
• Where to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Where to Bet: FanDuel Racing

Rebel Stakes Odds

Here are the entrants for the 2026 Rebel Stakes, including their post positions, trainers, jockeys, and official morning-line odds from Oaklawn.

Note that Bravaro is expected to scratch and run in the Fountain of Youth on Saturday at Gulfstream instead.

Rebel Stakes Prep Results

Fittingly, the race with the most last-out runners in the Rebel Stakes is the Southwest (G3) on February 6, the previous race on the Oaklawn spur of the Kentucky Derby trail. The exacta of Silent Tactic and Soldier N Diplomat returns for the next race in the series, Rancho Santa Fe was just a head and a nose behind Soldier N Diplomat in fourth, and Smarty Jones winner Strategic Risk will try to bounce back from a tenth-place finish in the Southwest.

All but two of the other horses in the race also come out of stakes races. Litmus Test is entered to make his three-year-old debut; he was last seen on December 13, winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). Two others come out of runner-up finishes in stakes races: Class President was second to Solitude Dude in the Swale on the Holy Bull (G3) undercard at Gulfstream on January 31, and Blackout Time races for the first time since running second to eventual divisional champion Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland on October 4.

Two other horses come out of the same allowance-optional claiming race at 1 1/16 miles on the Oaklawn dirt on February 8. Honey’s to Blame rallied from midfield and fought to win by a neck. On the other hand, Time for Music came up completely empty and finished seventh and last.

Rebel Stakes Contenders

These are the contenders in the 2026 Rebel at Oaklawn Park, organized by post position:

1. Bravaro: Last seen finishing second in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream, Bravaro is expected to stay in Florida and contest the Fountain of Youth (G2) on Saturday.
2. Litmus Test: Bob Baffert has won more editions of the Rebel than anyone, and Litmus Test will take a lot of money on that fact. He has tactical speed, and on his best, he isn’t too far off, but he also hasn’t beaten the best of the best and has tables to turn on Blackout Time from Keeneland last year. He has been on the shelf, so perhaps he can move forward, but he is mired inside in the biggest field he has seen to date, something that could make this a difficult assignment for his three-year-old debut. In short, there are sufficiently mixed signals to make him a likely underlay.
3. Class President: He debuted in December with a stalk-and-pounce factory at the one-turn mile at Gulfstream, and then finished second to the lightning-fast Solitude Dude in the Swale in his second start. He now has to prove himself outside of Gulfstream, but his pedigree is all route, meaning there is room for this Todd Pletcher trainee to move forward in his third start.
4. Blackout Time: He hasn’t raced since finishing second in the Breeders’ Futurity last October, after a shock scratch from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He finished clear of Litmus Test in the Breeders’ Futurity and ran well enough to consider him proven at two turns. He may be one of the more aggressive horses to the lead, but he was able to run on after disputing the pace in his maiden-breaker at Ellis, which is a plus. He figures if he has trained on from ages two to three, but on the other hand, even though McPeek isn’t impossible first off the lay, he is much better second-up, so this might be a prep for a 100-point race later.
5. Honey’s to Blame: This Arkansas-bred came close a couple of times on the grass in New York, then needed a drop to state-bred company to earn his diploma in December. However, he came back next out to earn a victory against open company over the course and distance next out. This “B” stringer from the Kenny McPeek barn is going the right way and may get a decent setup for his off-pace style, but he is going to need to go a lot faster in order to hold his own against Kentucky Derby prospects.
6. Strategic Risk: This horse is downright smart on his best, but it’s feast or famine. Two back, he won the first leg of Oaklawn’s prep series with confidence, stalking a sluggish pace in the Smarty Jones and taking command. But, next out in the Southwest, he made an early bid and came up completely empty. His best race could make him a force against this group, though, and he should be a price off of his last-out disappointment. Especially since he can muster a sharp late pace and the fractions in front of him should be at least honest, he has price appeal.
7. Silent Tactic: He ran his best race yet when winning the Southwest last out, rallying from near last and taking complete command. That kind of a trip could work out well for him again, with quite a few horses who want to be on or near the lead. He is showing steady improvement for a Mark Casse barn that has been red-hot in stakes races at Oaklawn this winter, and shapes as a contender.
8. Rancho Santa Fe: He was precocious, winning a maiden race and an allowance at Keeneland in his first two starts. However, he has been just a bit below the best in both the Smarty Jones and the Southwest in his next two starts, not outclassed but never looking like a winner either. Though the pace setup is likely to suit him, others have shown a better late kick, and a piece of the minor point awards looks like his ceiling once again.
9. Time for Music: The second-stringer for the Steve Asmussen barn, his only win in six starts came in a sprint maiden at Keeneland. Both of his two-turn starts have been disappointments. Though he has some room to improve second off a little freshening, he has a lot to find after being soundly beaten in both the Springboard Mile at Remington two back and the allowance race that Honey’s to Blame won last out. He’ll be the longest shot in the field, and justifiably so.
10. Soldier N Diplomat: The top entrant for the Asmussen barn, he has yet to break through in stakes company but has plucked superfecta finishes in each of his three stakes attempts. He does his best work stalking the pace, and should at least be able to work that kind of trip from this outside gate. That shouldn’t be a terrible trip, but he needs a significant step up to be more than a contender to fill out intra-race exotics once again.

Rebel Stakes Past Winners Past Performances

With the race split into two divisions in 2019, there have been eleven editions of the Rebel in the last ten years. Out of those winners, just one came out of the traditional local prep, the Southwest: Long Range Toddy (2019) finished third. Another, Coal Battle (2025), won the Rebel in his first start since winning the Smarty Jones, the first Kentucky Derby qualifying race of the Oaklawn season.

Other than Coal Battle, there have been two other last-out stakes winners to take down the Rebel, both of them trained by Bob Baffert: Nadal (2020) and Concert Tour (2021), both came out of the San Vicente (G2).

The three other recent Rebel Stakes winners to come from stakes company are Un Ojo, who was second in the Withers (G3) before going to the Rebel; Confidence Game (2023), who came out of a third-place finish in the Lecomte (G3); and Timberlake (2024), who was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) before the Rebel.

The four other winners in the last ten years all won the Rebel in their stakes debut. Cupid (2016) and Omaha Beach (2019) both came into the race off of maiden special weight wins at Santa Anita, facing winners for the first time in Arkansas. Malagacy (2017) and Magnum Moon (2018), for Todd Pletcher, won allowances at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs, respectively.

Rebel Stakes: 3 Best Bets

These are the three best bets in the 2026 Rebel Stakes:

1. Strategic Risk (12-1)

Strategic Risk isn’t the most consistent horse, so be sure to demand a price with him. But, if he shows up with one of his better efforts, he could upset the race at appealing odds. It was a strange trip he had last out: further off the pace than usual, wide, a weird early move … if he gets a better trip from this nice middle gate, he should be able to track a couple lengths off the pace and tap into the sharp late pace he showed in both of his better efforts at two turns, in the In Reality against Florida Breds and in the Smarty Jones, the first Kentucky Derby qualifying race at Oaklawn.

His connections inspire confidence, too. Trainer Mark Casse has been formidable with Oaklawn shippers, winning seven of 22 starts heading into the current race week. Javier Castellano has not only been firing on all cylinders with Casse this winter, but it’s good to see him keep the faith—this will be Strategic Risk’s fourth race in a row with Castellano in the irons.

2. Silent Tactic (9-2)

Winner of the Southwest in his last start, the “A” stringer (at least this time around) from the Casse barn should be able to run well once again. He made the move from the synthetic at Woodbine last year to the dirt at Oaklawn well, going runner-up behind his stablemate in the Smarty Jones and then doing one better next out. With a lot of forwardly-placed horses in the field, he should get an honest pace to rally into over a course and distance he likes.

And, despite being proven locally, he should be an overlaid price given the interest in Bob Baffert shipper Litmus Test, as well as the first-off-the-layoff Blackout Time—both horses who have claims, but who stand to be underlays given the questions surrounding them, compared to a consistent and proven horse who is already in the midst of a campaign going the right way.

3. Class President (10-1)

With just two starts, none yet at two turns, he cedes experience to his foes in this race. However, this Todd Pletcher trainee has a lot of upside. He was beaten by a very good horse in the Swale last out, and that seven-furlong trip was too short for him. He broke his maiden at a mile, and his pedigree suggests that two turns should be where he really shines. As long as he can retain the tactical speed that he showed at one turn stretching out to two, he could get the jump on the closers and have enough in the tank to be a factor late.

Rebel Stakes Undercard

The Rebel is the 11th of 12 races on Oaklawn’s Sunday card. The $750,000 Honeybee Stakes (G3) is the other graded-stakes race on the card, and that offers 50-25-15-10-5 points toward starting eligibility in the Kentucky Oaks. The other stakes race on the card is the Pig Trail Overnight Stakes, a $135,000 race for older horses at 1 ½ miles on the dirt, open to horses who haven’t won a stakes in 2025 or 2026.

With big fields all day long, Sunday is an excellent day to watch and bet on Oaklawn. Stay tuned to FanDuel TV all day for the latest news and live footage of the races, and make sure to wager on the card through FanDuel.

Oaklawn Park History

Back in 1905, the Hot Springs Mayor declared a half-day holiday for the opening of Oaklawn Park, with over 3,000 people attending the track on its first day of racing. The holiday heralded the beginning of a tradition that has lasted for over a century!

Due to political issues, no racing took place at Oaklawn between 1907 and 1916, but after a sustained period of action, the now-famous Arkansas Derby was inaugurated in 1936 with a purse of $5,000 offered to entrants.

By 1952, Oaklawn could boast daily attendances of almost 8,000 people and an average daily handle of well over $400,000, figures which rose by the turn of the decade to 10,000 and $500,000, respectively, with the Arkansas Derby purse increasing to $50,000 by 1965.

The track continued to go from strength to strength, and during a 50-day meeting in 1970, an average of 11,000 people were attending daily, with over $43,000,000 wagered over the course of the meet.

In the mid-70s, Oaklawn gave birth to the Racing Festival of the South, with pari-mutuel wagering amounting to a cool $80,000,000 that season, and by the 80s, over a quarter of a million people were attending the festival each year. By then, the purse for the Arkansas Derby was up at $500,000, and a new single-day attendance record was set with 71,000 showing up to see Rampage win the big race in 1986.

Ten years later, Arkansas Derby day saw a total handle of over $10.5 million, and by the turn of the millennium, Oaklawn was still seeing increases in attendance and wagering, meaning the track stands as one of the best in the country at present.

Rebel Stakes FAQ

Q: When is the Rebel Stakes?

A: The 2026 Rebel Stakes will be run on Sunday, March 1, at Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Arkansas, with post scheduled for 5:23 p.m. Central Standard Time. The Rebel will be run as the 11th of 12 races on the day.

Q: Where is the Rebel Stakes?

A: It takes place at Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Arkansas.

Q: Which trainer has the most wins in the Rebel Stakes?

A: Trainer Bob Baffert has the most Rebel wins with 8, most recently in 2021 with Concert Tour. Baffert can extend his record to nine with Litmus Test, who ships out from Southern California to make his sophomore debut at Oaklawn.

Q: Who is the favorite for the 2026 Rebel Stakes?

A: Blackout Time, making his first start since running second to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, is the 8-5 morning-line favorite for the Rebel Stakes. He should take betting interest, but make sure to watch action on Litmust Test (7-2) for Bob Baffert, since his barn always takes money and Baffert is so successful when he ships out to Oaklawn.

Q: Who is the best Rebel Stakes jockey?

A: Mike Smith leads all jockeys with five wins in the Rebel, most recently in 2019 with Omaha Beach. Smith does not have a call in the race this year. Two jockeys in the 2026 edition have won the race before: Javier Castellano (Strategic Risk) won in 2017 with Malagacy, and Cristian Torres (Silent Tactic) won in 2024 with Timberlake.

Q: Who won the 2025 Rebel Stakes?

A: Coal Battle won the 2025 Rebel Stakes for trainer Lonnie Briley and jockey Juan Vargas. Neither returns to the race in 2026.

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