2 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Thanksgiving Day

On its face, the 2025 Thanksgiving Day NFL slate is a banger.

We have six fun, intriguing teams with a boatload of electric players. You can sell that to anyone.

I think it looks even better once you dig under the hood.

Even with the spreads relatively tight, there's a chance these matchups are even more equal than they're being billed. For me, it's creating value in a pair of underdogs, and I like a dice role on their respective moneylines.

Let's dig into which of those dogs I'm targeting in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds and why.

Best NFL Spread and Total Bets for Thanksgiving

Packers at Lions

Packers Moneyline (+124)

Anecdotally, the Green Bay Packers feel like a team that consistently plays down to its competition. It makes them maddening to watch or bet on, and it may make us hesitant to back them when they're facing a genuinely good team in the Detroit Lions.

For whatever reason, the Packers' non-sense does come with efficiency, and it's leading to my model showing value in them for Thursday.

Through Week 12, the Packers are fifth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings and third through the air. They are ahead of Detroit in both metrics (seventh in each category). They also lead the league in schedule-adjusted late-down success rate, which is surprising given how volatile they feel.

The defense still grades out well, too, as they're 7th in numberFire's rankings there while the Lions are 13th. That's actually a crazy impressive mark for the Lions, given all the injuries they've had to withstand, but they're still banged up now with Kerby Joseph missing practice on Monday.

Bottom line, Green Bay is the better team by my model, and the gap is big enough for this to be nearly a pick 'em for me even in Detroit. Thus, I think +124 on the moneyline is a big enough number to be a value.

Bengals at Ravens

Bengals Moneyline (+270)

Even with Joe Burrow back, this is less about the Cincinnati Bengals and more about my confusion with the Baltimore Ravens' offense.

We've got a four-game sample on them since Lamar Jackson's return. In those games, Jackson has averaged just 0.03 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. The league average is about 0.10, so this is underwhelming. It looks worse when you consider two of those matchups were against poor defenses in the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets.

A lot of this is due to what's happening on third and fourth down. They've been a below-average team there since Jackson's return, and they weren't exactly thriving before his injury, either. If Jackson's scrambling abilities have been dinged, that could play a role in dragging down this number.

As for the Bengals, I have no idea what to expect. Not only is this Burrow's first game back, but they won't have Tee Higgins due to a concussion. A fully healthy Burrow can still move the ball without Higgins, but we don't know where he's at right now.

As a result, I have a modest projection for the Bengals' efficiency (at least relative to Burrow's baseline). Even with that, I still have them winning this game 31.3% of the time. Their implied odds at +270 are 27.0%, so even though the Ravens are rightfully heavy favorites, the Bengals grade out as a value.

The volatility in the projection for the Bengals' offense is why I prefer the moneyline to taking the seven points on the spread. The longer odds allow me to lower my bet size, decreasing my exposure to the Bengals while still giving me upside should the model have this game properly pegged.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.