Super Bowl LVII: Top 5 Injury-Based Bets

Sports Injury Central
Jan 29, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney (19) is
Jan 29, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney (19) is / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Everyone will have a wager in some way shape or form heading into the Super Bowl so make sure you aren’t left out on Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs face-off against the Philadelphia Eagles. Each entity has their own betting angle coming in to the big game and as always we at present a unique perspective using injury analysis to steer you wagers in the right direction.

Going into Super Bowl LVII, here are our Injury Based bets…

Patrick Mahomes O19.5 Rushing Yards

The Chiefs star QB is now multiple weeks removed from an ankle injury and although not at 100% health he is is healthier than he was in the AFC Championship game where he rushed just three times for 8 yards. Was hoping the number didn’t jump high before the Super Bowl and it did just that now sitting at 19.5 at most books. Regardless in the boost in number the pick is still strong with the Eagles giving up the fourth mosf rushing yards to QBs this year. Expect the mobile QB to play magically through the ankle and rush for 20+ yards on Sunday.

Jalen Hurts U239.5 Passing Yards

The former Heisman Trophy winner will play in his first Super Bowl and at we have no worries over the shoulder issue he’s dealt with over the last month with no limitations expected in the Super Bowl. The real issue is the number is a tad inflated meaning there is value in the under as Hurts has only hit this number 41% time this season. Even if the Eagles are getting dominated early and go to the run this number just seems high and if you pair this with a less than 85% healthy RT Lane Johnson, under seems like the play on Sunday. 

Isiah Pacheco U11.5 Rushing Attempts

The Chiefs starting RB took over the job midseson and hasn’t looked back pairing nicely with receiving back Jerrick McKinnon creating a potent duo. Yardage wise Pacheco has been up and down during the postseason but the real issue is he is not getting enough touches. It is known that he plays in a pass heavy attach which limits his usage and with a healthy Eagles frontline we see him being ineffective with his touches on Sunday. Clyde Edward-Helaire will return to the fold Sunday returning from IR further limiting Pacheco’s touches.

Kadarius Toney O28.5 Receiving Yards

The beleaguered wideout suffered an ankle injury in the AFC Championship game but will play in the Super Bowl. Starting slot WR Mecole Hardman will miss the game due to a likely core muscle issue opening the door even further for Toney. Ankle and hamstring injuries have bothered Toney for most of his career meaning he has laxity which should help him recover from the issue quicker. The number is low due to him not returning to the Chiefs last matchup but expect the former Giant WR to be featured heavily during the Super Bowl.

Chris Jones O 0.25 Sacks

The Eagles main injury concern is the health of All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson who is playing through a torn groin and wouldn’t have surgery until after the SB. This means the issue isn’t improving and although Johnson has played phenomenally in the two games since returning, the issue can be exploited if they pass rush directly at him something 49ers Nick Bosa did not do. If the Chiefs copy the 49ers defensive scheme and focus on limiting Hurts rushing then this won’t be a lock but the Chiefs would be wise to utilize Jones bull-rush pass rush maneuvers against an injured Johnson. 

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