Not only is quarterback arguably the deepest position in fantasy football, it is also the position that is seemingly overvalued most often. Fantasy owners often buy into false hype or recency bias, causing them to miss out on key players at other positions.
With that in mind, here are the five most overrated quarterbacks in fantasy football heading into the 2019 NFL season.
5. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Before you freak, hear me out. Patrick Mahomes is the top-ranked quarterback in fantasy football. That is not the argument. He is, however, incredibly overvalued. Mahomes has an ADP of 27, which is above players like Devonta Freeman, A.J. Green, Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper. No quarterback should be drafted this high in a one-QB league, even though he had the best fantasy QB season ever last season. There will likely be some regression, as he lost his No. 1 WR in Tyreek Hill and also faces the toughest quarterback schedule in 2019. Mahomes could still end up QB1 by season's end, there's just no value in drafting him in fantasy.
4. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Have you ever heard of the sophomore slump? While Baker Mayfield is a great quarterback, he will likely experience this in 2019. Even though the Browns brought in some big-time weapons, including Odell Beckham Jr., to play with him, he is being overrated simply because the team as a whole is. Mayfield is currently being selected as the fifth quarterback based on his ADP, but he's truly more of a back-end QB1. While Mayfield is likely to have a big season, he's still overrated when it comes to fantasy right now.
3. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
Carson Wentz is currently being selected in early fantasy drafts as if there is zero risk involved. His ADP has him being selected as QB10, but his inability to stay on the field, especially during the latter part of the season, is a huge concern that almost no one is talking about. He is a high-upside option, but there are other players being selected behind Wentz that could be seen as much surer things.
2. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton is coming off surgery to his right throwing shoulder. If the Panthers wanted to limit his running before, they might really want to now. Newton, without his running ability, is nothing more than an average passer. With an ADP of QB9, Cam is being overrated purely based on his upside. But the upside isn't what it used to be. Let others select Cam and consider someone like Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger or Philip Rivers close to 20 picks later.
1. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray is a running quarterback that some are comparing to Michael Vick, so it's easy to see why people are overvaluing him. But we have to remember that he's a rookie on a team that likely won't be very good. While Murray is being selected as QB12, based on his average draft position, even if he matches the season Mayfield had in 2019, that's only good enough for QB16. The Murray hype machine is clearly working, making him arguably the most overrated fantasy QB heading into the 2019 NFL season.
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