WNBA Betting Picks to Target for Tuesday 6/18/24

The WNBA is back, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Los Angeles Sparks at Connecticut Sun

Under 153.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Sparks and Connecticut Sun have a miniscule 153.5 over/under tonight. According to numberFire's database, this 153.5 total would be the third lowest of the season.

It may not be low enough.

That's primarily because of the Sun. On their way to a league-leading 12-1 record, Connecticut has trotted out the league's top defensive rating and slowest pace. Only one opposing team has cracked 84 points against them, and three have failed to even hit 60 points.

In total, the Sun have surrendered just 70.8 points per game -- nearly six fewer than the next-closest team.

With LA sitting at 11th in offensive rating and 10th in points scored, they face an uphill battle against the Sun defense.

This will be the fifth time the Sparks have faced a top-five defense this season. They're 0-5 in such games, averaging just 74.4 points per game.

The Sparks aren't much of a threat from beyond the arc (seventh in attempts and eighth in 3P%), and they'll be hard-pressed to score down low against a Sun interior that's given up the third-fewest paint attempts in the W.

On the flip side, Connecticut's snail-like pace hasn't led to them filling up the scoreboard either. They're averaging just 81.1 points per game this season and have exceeded 85 points just once against teams not named the Indiana Fever.

So, even if they can cover this 13-point spread, the game environment shouldn't lend itself to many points from the home team.

This is a total that's shifted quite a bit since opening, so keep an eye on it throughout the day. Considering Connecticut's stellar defense and slow pace, I'd play this down to 153.

New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury

Mercury +5.0 (-108)

The Phoenix Mercury have looked much better in four games since Brittney Griner's return. They're 3-1 over that span, picking up notable wins over the Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm at home. Their lone loss came at home to the Las Vegas Aces.

They face another tough task tonight with the 12-2 New York Liberty in town. The Liberty are favored by 5.0 here -- a line the Mercury should be able to cover.

New York has been a wagon this season, but they haven't been world-beaters against the spread. numberFire's database has them at 6-8 ATS, while Phoenix is 9-5 overall and 4-0 with Griner in the lineup.

Griner has been spectacular thus far. After she was limited to just 21 minutes in her first game, she's averaged 34 minutes and 25.7 points over her last three games.

Last season, Griner was only available for one of Phoenix's three dates with New York. The Mercury only lost that one by four in New York, during which Griner put up 21 points on 8-of-15 shooting.

It helps that leading scorer Kahleah Copper (24.0 points per game) found success against the Liberty last season, too. As a member of the Chicago Sky, Copper scored at least 20 points in three of four games against New York. Her Sky went 0-4 against them, but two were decided by four points or fewer.

While the Liberty are undoubtedly one of the top teams in the W, this is just too high of a line on the road against a suddenly-rolling Mercury squad. Look for them to cover five here, and it may be worth considering their moneyline at +186 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.