MLB

Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in 2024?

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin

Spring training is rapidly approaching, paving the way for the 2024 MLB season to commence. With baseball almost back in our lives again, it's only a matter of time before we are watching in awe as talented players across the game launch home runs over the outfield walls.

At the end of the 2023 MLB season, there were six players who achieved 40-plus home runs, and three of them played for the Atlanta Braves. The home-run leader in baseball last year was Matt Olson, who slugged a career-high 54 dingers in his second season with the Braves.

Who will lead baseball in homers this campaign?

Ahead of the 2024 season, let's dive into the MLB home run leader odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and discuss my favorite players to bet on.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds

Here are the players with the 15 shortest odds to lead all of baseball in home runs for the 2024 season.

Player
HR Leader Odds
Aaron Judge380
Matt Olson+750
Pete Alonso+850
Shohei Ohtani+1000
Kyle Schwarber+1200
Yordan Alvarez+1300
Juan Soto+1400
View Full Table

Aaron Judge, Yankees (+380)

Aaron Judge has been no stranger to the long ball since becoming a mainstay for the New York Yankees in the 2017 season. After hitting a league-best 52 homers in his first full year in 2017, Judge outdid himself in 2022 when he led the majors with a whopping 62 home runs.

Even though Judge was limited to only 106 games and 458 plate appearances in 2023, he was still tied for the 10th-most homers (37) in the majors. While injuries are a concern for Judge every year, the All-Star outfielder has played in at least 148 games in two of his last three seasons.

During his injury woes in 2022, Judge still managed to register the best barrel rate (27.5%), hard-hit rate (64.2%), and highest average exit velocity (97.6 MPH) among players with 400-plus plate appearances. He also posted the third-highest slugging percentage (.613) and the second-highest isolated power (.346) in all of baseball.

Entering the 2024 season, Judge is seemingly fully healthy, and he'll continue to hit near the top of the order for the Yankees. If Judge can achieve 600-plus plate appearances like he did in 2021 and 2022, there's a good chance he'll be in contention to lead the league in homers in 2024.

Matt Olson, Braves (+750)

On a Braves team that is absolutely loaded with talent at the plate, Olson led the league in home runs last season with 54. The left-handed power hitter has flirted with 40-plus homers before in his career, but last year was the first time he achieved the milestone.

When looking at Olson's special season in 2023, the first baseman of the Braves notched the MLB's fourth-highest slugging percentage (.604) and the third-highest isolated power (.321). Additionally, the 29-year-old veteran had the ninth-highest barrel rate (16.4%), third-highest hard-hit rate (55.5%), and fourth-highest average exit velocity (93.7 MPH).

In each of his first two seasons with the Braves, Olson has played in all 162 games and has garnered at least 699-plus plate appearances. A season ago, Olson had 680 of his 720 plate appearances come from batting either second or fourth in Atlanta's lethal lineup.

Staying healthy hasn't been an issue for Olson, and he should continue slotting in the top half of the order for the Braves. While we haven't had a player lead the majors in homers in back-to-back years since Jose Bautista in 2010 and 2011, Olson could end that streak in the upcoming season.

Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (+1000)

The most notable move of the MLB offseason, one that set the entire sports world on fire, was Shohei Ohtani electing to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The two-way superstar spent the first six years of his productive career with the Los Angeles Angels, and he led the American League in home runs (44) in 2023.

Ohtani suffered an elbow injury that required him to undergo surgery near the end of the 2023 campaign, and that will prevent him from pitching again until 2025. At the very least, Ohtani appears to be healthy enough to dominate at the plate and is expected to be the everyday designated hitter near the top of the order for the Dodgers.

Despite having to pitch every five days for the Angels, Ohtani has still managed to reach 599-plus plate appearances in each of his last three seasons. In the midst of leading the American League in homers last year, Ohtani also had the second-highest barrel rate (19.6%), eighth-highest hard-hit rate (54.2%), and third-highest average exit velocity (94.4 MPH).

Dodger Stadium has also been a beneficial venue for batters, indicated by it having the second-highest home run factor among all ballparks in the last three years. With Ohtani getting an entire season to focus on just his approach at the plate, the 29-year-old phenom is an appealing bet to lead baseball in homers at these +1000 odds.

Longshot Pick: Austin Riley, Braves (+2300)

Picking any player on the Braves who is going to have consistent playing time doesn't seem like such a bad idea when looking at their lineup. While Ronald Acuna Jr. and Olson receive the most buzz, Austin Riley is among the other reliable hitters on Atlanta's deep roster.

After failing to play in more than 80 games for the Braves in his first two seasons in the majors, Riley has been active in 159-plus games in each of his last three years. The well-rounded third baseman has 662-plus plate appearances and 32-plus dingers in each of his last three years.

Despite notching the 27th-highest barrel rate (13.9%), 26th-highest hard-hit rate (49.2%), and 17th-highest average exit velocity (92.3 MPH) in 2023, Riley displayed his power in 2022 with the eighth-highest barrel rate (15.7%), 12th-highest hard-hit rate (50.8%), and 11th-highest average exit velocity (92.5 mph) en route to a career-best 38 homers.

So, how can Riley get to the point where he's in contention to lead the league in home runs?

Even with Riley being an outstanding hitter, he could stand to improve his fly-ball rate after having the 74th-highest fly ball rate (28.6%) in 2023. If Riley continues to remain healthy and can make slight adjustments to his power metrics, he can be a contender to lead the lead in dingers.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.