NCAAF

Washington-Oregon State: Spread, Total, Breakdown and Best Bet for Pac-12 Showdown

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
Washington-Oregon State: Spread, Total, Breakdown and Best Bet for Pac-12 Showdown

Well, they say nothing lasts forever -- tradition included.

As longtime rivals situated fewer than 270 miles apart, the No. 5 Washington Huskies will face the No. 11 Oregon State Beavers this week in a regular season football game for the final time before realignment. These Pacific Northwest programs have been squaring off for 126 years now; which side will have the last laugh come Saturday?

The Beavers will have their hands full this weekend -- Washington (41.0 PPG) boasts one of the top offenses in the country. Still, Oregon State's home-field advantage is one not to ignore. Frankly, this Pac-12 meeting has the potential to be one of the best contests of the entire 2023 college football season.

With just two remaining games in the regular season, this clash in Corvallis will carry major weight for both programs. Keeping that in mind, let's dive into the odds and lines with an emphasis on the most valuable of the traditional betting markets.

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Washington at Oregon State Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline and Total

Kickoff: Saturday (Nov. 18), 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC

Spread: Oregon State -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline:

  • Washington: +114
  • Oregon State: -137

Total: 63.5

Washington at Oregon State Matchup Analysis

This rivalry matchup should present Pac-12 football at its finest. Of course, it is quite ironic how universally competitive the conference has become -- there are no less than five Pac-12 schools on the latest CFP rankings -- on the heels of 83% of its member institutions announcing a departure following the 2023-24 academic year.

Still, we as fans and bettors should be grateful that we are at least getting this Week 12 Washington-Oregon State meeting exactly when we are. With the Huskies still undefeated this late in the year, the two sides are a combined 18-2. UDub is holding onto strong CFP aspirations, showing +115 odds to qualify for the playoff, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Naturally, the Beavers would love to spoil all playoff talk for Washington. With only two losses (and a regular-season finale versus the Oregon Ducks), Oregon State controls their own destiny en route to a conference crown. In this meeting with the undefeated Huskies, the Beavs' are listed as home favorites; that might be related to the fact that Oregon State has lost just one game at Reser Stadium over the past three seasons.

As of early Wednesday, the Beavers are laying just under a field goal for Saturday's contest with UDub. Even in front of Corvallis' rowdy fanbase, that does feel ambitious against the Huskies, who are led by Heisman-hopeful quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

At the moment, Washington's lefty signal-caller yields +370 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook in the Heisman market. Penix's 353.3 passing yards per game lead all of FBS, while his QBR of 85.1 is fourth-best. Along the way, he has connected with electric receivers Rome Odunze (third-favorite for the Biletnikoff Award) and Ja'lynn Polk for more than 50 catches each in 2023.

The Huskies -- talented as they are -- will have a tough time with a scrappy Oregon State bunch. The Beavers are well-rounded, as both the offense (13th) and defense (28th) rank favorably in the latest SP+ rankings. Their head coach and former star quarterback, Jonathan Smith, has meshed well with dual-threat QB D.J. Uiagalelei.

In his first season with the Beavs, Uiagalelei has already accounted for 26 total touchdowns. Additionally, he has had the luxury of playing behind a stout offensive line (ranked third in America entering 2023, per PFF) with an explosive running game. Half-back Damien Martinez has been a major beneficiary, pacing Oregon State with seven scores this year.

Both defenses on hand employ a "bend but don't break" mentality. Washington -- a school historically known for its secondary -- is led by safety Dominique Hampton (70 tackles, 2 INT in 2023). The Beavers showcase a talented safety man of their own in Akili Arnold (2 INT, 6 passes defensed). Can either playmaker create a game-changing turnover on Saturday?

Throughout history, the Huskies hold a 67-35-4 head-to-head record versus Oregon State. This weekend in Corvallis, the two Pacific Northwest rivals should give us a close affair. According to numberFire's power rankings, Washington (22.01 nERD) is 10th in FBS while the Beavers (18.20) are close behind at 14th.

So, who ya got?

Washington at Oregon State Best Bet

Under 63.5 (-110)

As alluded to, I respect the home-field advantage at Reser Stadium, but it is tough to bet against UDub and head coach Kalen DeBoer right now. Naturally, this contest could go either way, but laying 2.5 points against an undefeated team led by a Heisman frontrunner does not feel like the best choice.

However, I believe there is value in the lofty total of 63.5 -- let's go under.

For starters, the weather in Corvallis on game day forecasts a 70% chance of rain. Of course, the region is accustomed to showers this time of year, and that would certainly slow the pace of play for both prolific offenses. These teams amassing 64 combined points in inclement conditions -- which might force an emphasis on the ground game -- could prove arduous.

Back at numberFire, the game projections yield an estimated score of 32.92-27.59 in favor of Oregon State. That produces a sum of 60.51, which provides nearly three points of cushion if playing the under. In this final regular season meeting between conference foes, I expect an old-school, physical football game in rainy weather.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.