US Open Third Round Betting Guide: Saturday 9/2/23
The final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, is underway this week.
We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see which third-round matches could have the most betting value on Saturday.
Stan Wawrinka vs. Jannik Sinner
Jannik Sinner 3-0 Sets (+100)
We saw Jannik Sinner take care of business on Thursday in a routine, straight-sets win over Lorenzo Sonego, and we should expect more of the same against Stan Wawrinka.
Against Sonego, Sinner dominated his first-serve points (89% win rate) and never faced a single break point. He's up to an 81.8% win percentage across 33 hard-court matches this season.
Wawrinka's second round went far less smoothly, as he had to battle three hours and 39 minutes across four grueling sets to dispatch Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
While Wawarinka's put up a solid 13-7 record on the surface this season, two of those losses have come in straight sets to Sinner. The World No. 6 has a three-match win streak over Wawrinka dating back to Wimbledon 2022, too.
Sinner is tied for the third-shortest odds to win the men's title. He'll be tested eventually, but it shouldn't be against this particular opponent.
Per Tennis Abstract, Sinner's surface-adjusted Elo rating is nearly 250 points higher than Wawrinka's, which implies an 86.0% win probability. His implied odds as a -820 favorite suggest an even higher chance of winning.
We should be content to take Sinner at even odds to win this one in a convincing fashion across straight sets.
Liudmila Samsonova vs. Madison Keys
Liudmila Samsonova ML (+104)
On the women's side, we see Madison Keys as a slight favorite over Liudmila Samsonova -- but perhaps it should be the other way around.
Samsonova is coming off an impressive summer on hard courts, making it to the semifinals at Washington and then following it up with a runner-up finish at Montreal.
Her losses in those events came against top-10 players Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula, both of whom are title contenders at the US Open.
Samsonova hasn't dropped a set through the first two rounds, either. While the 24-year-old hasn't had a ton of success in Grand Slams yet, she made it to the fourth round at the 2022 US Open, and this is by far her best surface, according to Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings.
Admittedly, Keys has cruised past her first two opponents, which included a 6-1, 6-2 beatdown of qualifier Yanina Wickmayer that didn't even take one hour.
However, she entered the tournament having lost three of her last four matches, and her only win was over Venus Williams, who is sadly a shell of her former self these days.
Per Tennis Abstract, Samsonova projects to win this 52.7% of the time, which would suggest she should be priced at around -110 to win instead.
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