US Open Second Round Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/30/23
The final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, is underway this week.
We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see which second-round matches could have the most betting value on Wednesday.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Dominic Stricker
Stefanos Tsitsipas 3-0 Sets (+105)
As is often the case, we're seeing a fair number of heavy favorites in Wednesday's second-round matches, and that includes Stefanos Tsitsipas, who is priced at a whopping -780 to advance past qualifier Dominic Stricker.
While we obviously don't want to touch odds like that, it's easy to envision Tsitsipas dominating this match. Although he didn't make much noise at either Canada or Cincinnati in August, he took home a hard courts title in July (Los Cabos) and has amassed a 76.0% win percentage on the surface in 2023.
According to Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, has the fifth-best surface-blended score in the entire tournament. And consider this: the site is giving him a 90.7% win probability.
Frankly, Stricker is likely just overmatched here. Ranked outside the top 100, his first-round win over Alexei Popyrin was his first ATP-level match on hard courts this entire season, as nearly all his matches have come in Challenger events or qualifiers.
While the 21-year-old could have a bright future ahead of him and deserves credit for defeating a top-50 opponent, it's a big ask for him to hang with a two-time major finalist.
Tsitsipas won their only head-to-head in straight sets (2022 Stuttgart), and we should expect a similar routine victory on Wednesday.
Sebastian Ofner vs. Frances Tiafoe
Frances Tiafoe 3-0 Sets (+110)
If we're being honest, Frances Tiafoe has been disappointing in Grand Slams ever since he made the 2022 US Open semifinals, failing to advance past the third round in the three that have come since.
Still, it's been a positive season overall for Tiafoe, as he won his second and third singles titles earlier this year, helping him crack the top 10 for the first time. He's also held his own on hard courts, winning 69.2% of those matches in 2023.
Despite his shakier play in this year's majors, all of those losses came against quality opponents ranked in the top 30.
Wednesday's opponent, Sebastian Ofner, has never even snuck inside the top 50 over his career, and similar to the aforementioned Stricker, Ofner has also spent most of his season playing Challenger matches.
The difference is that Ofner is already 27 years old, so it's possible he's already at or close to his ceiling.
Per Tennis Abstract, Tiafoe has an 86.7% chance of winning, which falls right in line with his implied odds as a -690 favorite. Ofner needed to go four sets and nearly three hours to advance past 79th-ranked Nuno Borges in the first round, so it's hard to see him taking a set against much tougher competition.
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