UFC Vegas 109 Best Bets and Props: Dolidze vs. Hernandez

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Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Vegas 109: Dolidze vs. Hernandez, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC Vegas 109 Betting Picks

Joselyne Edwards vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Edwards by Submission or Points (-220)

My betting model is often 'dog or pass on wide lines. UFC favorites get blown out of proportion, so I always like to highlight a bet north of -200, like last week, to show it is indeed capable.

Here's another layup it's taking. Joselyne Edwards hasn't been knocked out in 21 pro fights, and she'll likely easily get her hand raised if that extends to 22. Priscila Cachoeira winning three of her last five fights is an equal statement of her power behind a 0.74% knockdown rate (KD%) as it is some good fortunate.

"Zombie Girl" is a hoot on a per-minute basis, posting the worst striking success rate on the UFC roster (-3.12 SSR) for someone with at least five wins. She's aptly nicknamed, but Edwards (+1.42 SSR) should style on her at distance, and the new wrinkle of submission danger that "La Pantera" showed in her last fight could be a useful tool against Cachoeira, who is 0-4 to submission outcomes as a pro.

I've got Edwards 69.1% likely to find a tap or win on the cards, which implies closer to -223 odds.

Eryk Anders vs. Christian Leroy Duncan

Anders to Win (+410)
Anders by Points (+700)

Other domestic sportsbooks offer a "point spread" bet related to the cards, and that would be my favorite way to back Eryk Anders at plus money to win a round. He can still win two -- and the fight -- here, though.

"Ya Boi" has won three of his last four after a come-from-behind stoppage against a washed Chris Weidman in his last bout, but I think he's around for the long haul here. Anders' lone UFC loss by (T)KO was a doctor's stoppage in 2018, and Christian Leroy Duncan (0.33 KD%) has never fulfilled his potential as a knockout artist with UFC.

The English favorite is an excellent striker (+1.74 SSR), so he'll likely get the best of the former Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker (-0.51 SSR) at distance. However, Duncan ceded five total takedowns and 11:41 in total control time to lose to Gregory Rodrigues and Armen Petrosyan. Anders (1.71 takedowns per 15) can wrestle a bit.

I've got Anders 40.5% likely to win this bout, and CLD has never been stopped as a pro. I'll ladder the point spread, an outright win, and a win by points to back the underdog.

Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (+146)
Rodriguez Wins Inside the Distance (+240)
Rodriguez by Submission (+500)

I find this line bizarre for the attrition that 35-year-old Andre Fili has suffered that isn't getting any better.

"Touchy" Fili made a pretty poor mistake to get submitted in the first round by Melquizael Costa (5-2 UFC), who just went the distance with Christian Rodriguez in his last fight. That was after a -20 striking differential and represented the fourth time Fili was dropped or finish in his last seven fights. His striking defense (50%) is iffy, too.

Rodriguez should swallow any grappling deficiencies whole. He took Costa down six times to force a split decision and averages 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes. "CeeRod" has converted just one of those into a stoppage so far, though.

There isn't a ton of knockout power here, but I've modeled an early finish 55.8% of the time when the veteran was also knocked out in 2024. Rodriguez (31.6%) has a higher chance to finish the bout than Fili (15.6%), and 78.9% of the time that CeeRod finds the finish, it's a submission.

This angle makes a lot more sense than Rodriguez's hefty moneyline when a 15-minute decision could be extremely dicey as the grappler of these two. We saw that cost him the nod against Costa.

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Angela Hill

Hill to Win (+148)

We saw two weeks ago yet another reason to not pick up pennies in front of a bulldozer ditching women's strawweight moneylines for decision props. I won't do so with Angela Hill even if the 40-year-old has just one win by finish since February 2020.

"Overkill" has posted an admirable career resurgence to have a chance at getting her UFC record (13-14) back to .500 this weekend. She's won five of seven with the only losses coming inside the top 10 of the rankings to Tabatha Ricci and Mackenzie Dern.

Iasmin Lucindo is eighth in the rankings, so that's a bit terrifying, but Lucindo was blown out and gave up 7:58 in control time to Amanda Lemos in her last fight. At just 2.94 significant strike attempts per 15 minutes, Lucindo hasn't had a ton of great moments when unable to bully foes with her own athletic grappling. At just 23 years old, she may not have the skill to do anything else.

Hill's 75% takedown D should make that difficult, and Angie (10.94 significant strike attempts per 15 minutes) is one of UFC's best point fighters at distance.

I've got the younger Lucindo a slight 53.0% favorite, but that leaves the betting value squarely on the veteran.

Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez

Dolidze to Win (+245)
Dolidze Wins in Round 1, 2, or 3 (+550)

Until the hype of Anthony Hernandez fades off, I'm sort of in this 'dog or pass mode with him.

"Fluffy" is a flawed fighter. He's got extremely poor striking defense (46%) at a ranked level and has been easily hurt to the body on several occasions. Nobody amidst his seven-fight winning streak has found the button as Kevin Holland and Markus Perez did; that duo both finished him early before this run. Fluffy, behind a hurricane of endurance and wrestling (6.27 takedowns per 15 minutes), has drowned his opponents late.

Roman Dolidze is cinematic matchmaking for him because, while Dolidze's 33% takedown D is poor, it's intentional. He's shown great jiu-jitsu (0.9 sub attempts per 15) off his back, and on the feet, the Georgian is a monstrously big striker for the weight class with a 0.75 KD%. He badly broke Kyle Daukaus' face and has improved if last fight's +30 striking differential over Marvin Vettori is any indication.

No one in the division will win the final two rounds against Hernandez's pace, but I like Dolidze's chances to either survive them on bottom or find the stoppage well before that point.

These lengthy odds are somewhat appropriate, but I've still got Dolidze 32.3% likely to win (+210 implied), and 27.3% of the time, it's a Dolidze win via early finish. I'm good tossing away the final two rounds against Fluffy in the prop market when I'll have moneyline exposure to profit from a 48-47 decision anyway.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.