Tony Pollard to Titans: 2024 Rushing Props Analysis

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
Tony Pollard to Titans: 2024 Rushing Props Analysis

It's been a busy NFL free agency period, especially so for running backs around the league.

One RB move that has drawn some attention is Tony Pollard moving from the Dallas Cowboys to the Tennessee Titans.

Tennessee has agreed to a three-year, $24 million deal with Pollard. Considering that "King" Derrick Henry recently signed with the Baltimore Ravens, Pollard will likely slide into a prevalent role for the Titans.

All things considered, what sort of season is Pollard in line for in 2024?

Tony Pollard 2024 Player Props

Let's look at the early Tony Pollard player props for 2024 from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tony Pollard 2024-25 Regular Season Rushing Total
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
Over 775.5-112
Under 775.5-112
Tony Pollard 2024-25 Regular Season Total Rushing TDs
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
Over 6.5-108
Under 6.5-118

Within these markets, we see Pollard's 2024 rushing total set at 775.5 yards. That is down considerably from last year -- when Pollard went for 1,005 yards on the ground (which gave him back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing campaigns).

Keep in mind: 2023 was Pollard's first and only season as the featured back. He now joins a franchise in Nashville that loves to run the rock.

Tony Pollard's Fit in Tennessee

As a Memphis native, Pollard shined in college for the Memphis Tigers. There, Pollard was utilized as a dual-threat skill player, amassing 941 total rushing yards with 1,292 receiving. Now that he is coming to Tennessee's other big city, will Pollard reach new heights a little closer to home?

Through recent years, the Titans have been a team dedicated to the run. In 2023, Tennessee ran the ball 444 times. A season prior, that number was up to 487 total carries as a team. In each of the last two years, the Titans have been one of the 10 most run-heavy teams going by pass-to-run ratio, although there's a new coaching staff in town for 2024.

Considering Pollard has averaged 4.8 yards per rushing attempt through five professional seasons, he certainly has an opportunity to go over his set yardage prop.

At his current yards-per-carry clip, Pollard will need to run the football approximately 162 times to reach 776 rushing yards. Over his past two seasons in Dallas, Pollard went well above that usage mark, averaging 222.5 carries per year.

In terms of rushing touchdown totals, Pollard's best year saw him produce nine scores (2022). Overall, he has rushed for 23 regular-season touchdowns through his NFL career. For the coming season, Pollard rushing TD mark is set at 6.5. Entering a new system (with not many other offensive threats), Pollard could have his number called early and often.

As alluded to, we are at a changing of the guard for the NFL franchise in "Music City." With the defensive-minded Mike Vrabel fired after last season, Brian Callahan will be the Titans' head coach for 2024. Callahan comes over from the Cincinnati Bengals, where he served as the offensive coordinator for the past five campaigns.

In Cincy, Callahan -- who is the son of former Oakland Raiders head coach Bill Callahan -- showed a solid commitment to the passing game, ranking among the five most pass-heavy teams in both 2023 and 2022 going by pass-to-run ratio. However, Callahan was coaching an offense that had guys like Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase. The Titans don't have nearly the same kind of pass-game weapons.

Even with Cincy leaning on the pass in recent years, the Bengals still output 402.8 rushing attempts per season through Callahan's tenure.

Being that Pollard should be the starter over fellow Titans tailback Tyjae Spears, he should get ample work and will have a good chance to go over 775.5 rushing yards.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.