Today's Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Week 4

Week 4 in the NFL started with a bang on a walk-off field goal in Glendale. It'll conclude with a reunion (or grudge match?) in Big D followed by a doubleheader on Monday night.

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what we project from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucky Irving Over 92.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have quietly had Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles' number entering this matchup of undefeated teams, but Tampa will have to overcome some adversity to move to 4-0 this year.

Rather than take a side or total, it seems the Bucs might need plenty of Bucky Irving's services given their injuries to Mike Evans (hamstring), Baker Mayfield (bicep), and Chris Godwin (ankle). The latter two are expected to play while Evans is out, but the tailback can help lift the offense.

That's especially true when Philadelphia's rush defense -- ever so quietly -- is ranked just 21st in numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings. They just have faced a pair of teams in Dallas and Kansas City that don't run the ball particularly well.

More injury news should break Bucky's way, too. The return of left tackle Tristan Wirfs (knee) is a massive boon to this Bucs offensive line. Tampa is already 14th in rushing efficiency (per nF) before Wirfs' return, so this could be a top-10 running game with the cornerstone back.

FanDuel Research's NFL player prop projections expect 107.5 total scrimmage yards from Irving in this matchup. Don't leave the receiving work behind as Tampa figures out its receiving corps sans Evans.

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills

Saints Over 15.5 Points (-130)

Does anyone else notice that the New Orleans Saints' offense...isn't horrible?

Special teams was a disaster last week in Seattle, but NOLA is 22nd in schedule-adjusted offense entering Week 4. They've also taken on Kellen Moore's identity at previous spots by playing fast, ranking first in adjusted pace and second in plays per game (68.0) this year.

In three brutal rushing matchups, the Saints were still able to generate 3.9 yards per carry. Now, the Buffalo Bills have badly struggled against the rush (24th) -- and really as a whole (17th) on that side of the ball. For the first time, Alvin Kamara might be of true assistance to a team thrust in three negative scripts otherwise.

This is three field goals and a single touchdown when the Bills have surrendered 23.7 PPG despite a near shutout of the New York Jets. Spencer Rattler and company have been much better than the reeling Jets.

Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Moneyline (-132)

There's no team in the NFL that was embarrassed last week more than the Atlanta Falcons, yet they're favorites?

Atlanta bared the brunt of a (then) 0-2 Carolina Panthers team in their home opener and got smoked. Michael Penix Jr. threw an embarrassing pick-six, and Atlanta's defensive dominance from the first two weeks vanished. Overall, I think this is the time to buy them opposite a Washington Commanders team feeling great about itself.

Washington blew the doors off the Las Vegas Raiders at home in Marcus Mariota's debut, and Mariota dominated with 0.51 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db), per NFL's Next Gen Stats. We know what Mariota is in a larger sample as a starter -- or, rather, the Falcons definitely do. Mariota was at -0.07 EPA/db in 2022 in his last year with Atlanta.

Penix posted 0.01 EPA/db in the first two weeks, and on an adjusted EPA per play basis, the Falcons' defense (-0.10) has been better than Washington's (0.03), which looked poor in its only true test against the Green Bay Packers.

I'll take the Dirty Birds with the loss of Terry McLaurin (quad) a huge blow to the explosiveness of this D.C. offense.

Darnell Mooney to Record a Reception of 20+ Yards (-135)

Even in a dominant win, did you notice anything about the Commanders' secondary last week? It was Tre Tucker running open. A lot.

That's been an unfortunate theme for the Commanders this season. They've allowed the eighth-highest air yards per target (12.5). In practice, that's meant eight different players that have caught a 20-plus-yard reception against them in just three games. It should be nine if Jordan Love didn't miss a wide open Matthew Golden twice.

Atlanta's best deep threat can exploit these problems. Darnell Mooney missed Week 1, so half his 2025 sample was last year's disaster. Nonetheless, Mooney's elite average depth of target (12.0) has been on display early. He's averaged a longest reception of 16.0 yards despite just 15 total targets. Mooney cashed this line in 11 of 17 games a year ago.

Our projections forecast 17.4 yards per reception for Mooney on Sunday, and the high side of that should be 20-plus. Washington's weakness has been the deep ball, so we'll see if Atlanta offensive coordinator Zac Robinson realizes Penix throws a nice one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.