Thunder vs. Nuggets Western Semifinals Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for May 5

Thunder vs. Nuggets Game Info

• Date: Monday, May 5, 2025
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Paycom Center -- Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
• Coverage: TNT, truTV, and MAX

The Oklahoma City Thunder are massive 10-point favorites heading into Game 1 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets at Paycom Center on Monday, tipping off at 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT, truTV, and MAX. The matchup's over/under is set at 226.5.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Thunder win (74.6%)

Thunder vs. Nuggets Betting Trends

• The Thunder have put together a record of 54-26-2 against the spread this season.
• In the Nuggets' 82 games this season, they have 38 wins against the spread.
• This season, Thunder games have hit the over 44 times.
• Nuggets games this season have gone over the total in 49 of 82 opportunities (59.8%).
• When playing at home, Oklahoma City has a better record against the spread (29-12-1) compared to its ATS record in away games (25-14-1).
• When playing at home, the Thunder go over the over/under 59.5% of the time (25 of 42 games). They've hit the over in 47.5% of away games (19 of 40 contests).
• Denver has been better against the spread on the road (20-20-1) than at home (18-23-0) this year.
• Nuggets games have gone above the over/under more often at home (26 times out of 41) than on the road (23 of 41) this season.

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.7 points, 5 boards and 6.4 assists. Defensively, he averages 1.7 steals (fourth in league) and 1 block.
• Jalen Williams is averaging 21.6 points, 5.1 assists and 5.3 rebounds.
• Isaiah Hartenstein is averaging 11.2 points, 10.7 boards and 3.8 assists. At the other end, he averages 0.8 steals and 1.1 blocked shots.
• Aaron Wiggins averages 12 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists, shooting 48.8% from the field and 38.3% from downtown, with 1.7 made 3-pointers per game.
• Luguentz Dort is averaging 10.1 points, 4.1 boards and 1.6 assists.

Nuggets Leaders

• Nikola Jokic averages 29.6 points, 12.7 boards and 10.2 assists. He is also draining 57.6% of his shots from the floor (ninth in league) and 41.7% from 3-point range, with 2 triples per contest.
• Jamal Murray's numbers on the season are 21.4 points, 3.9 rebounds and 6 assists per contest. He is sinking 47.4% of his shots from the floor and 39.3% from beyond the arc, with an average of 2.3 treys.
• Michael Porter Jr. averages 18.2 points, 7 boards and 2.1 assists. He is draining 50.4% of his shots from the field and 39.5% from 3-point range, with 2.5 triples per game.
• The Nuggets get 15.4 points per game from Christian Braun, plus 5.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists.
• Per game, Russell Westbrook gives the Nuggets 13.3 points, 4.9 boards and 6.1 assists, plus 1.4 steals and 0.5 blocks.

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