Rangers vs. Panthers: Betting Picks, Props, and Prediction for Game 3

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
Rangers vs. Panthers: Betting Picks, Props, and Prediction for Game 3

It took overtime, but the New York Rangers avoided dropping the first two games of this series at home to the Florida Panthers. As this series shifts to South Beach, can the reigning East champions defend home ice on Sunday?

Let's dive into Game 3's best bets and player props.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

Rangers-Panthers Game 3 Best Bet

Panthers ML in Regulation (+100)

I'll happily take this discount on the Panthers' moneyline when, if this game goes to overtime, I'd probably live bet the Rangers anyway.

The NHL's most fortunate squad went 12-4 in overtime during the regular season, and they've turned in a 3-0 record in overtime during the playoffs. In the long run, an overtime record like that has an element of luck, but a lot of it likely has to do with Igor Shesterkin's brilliance in goal. Shesterkin's 11.45 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) are second in the playoffs overall.

It's pretty surprising that the Rangers have posted a 53.0 expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) in the first two games of this series, but expect that to change as the series heads to Miami. Florida's 60.3 xGF% at home in the playoffs only trails the Edmonton Oilers thus far, and the Rangers' 46.7 xGF% away from Madison Square Garden is easily the worst mark on the road of the teams remaining in the dance.

Plus, while Shesterkin is second in GSAx in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, it's not like Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky (8.62 GSAx) is ceding a ton of ground in third. He's been really solid, too.

Massey Ratings (58.0%) and DRatings (57.3%) assign a hefty chance that Florida wins this game overall. I'll shave off a bit of juice in anticipation this series avoids its second straight overtime period.

Rangers-Panthers Game 3 Player Prop to Target

Vladimir Tarasenko 2+ Shots on Goal (-130)

Vladimir Tarasenko has posted just a single shot on goal in the first two games of this series, so the -130 odds that he doubles that total on Sunday might seem intimidating. They shouldn't be.

Tarasenko was among those whose production suffered in the first two games against the crowd-propelled Rags in their building. In the previous series against the Boston Bruins, the winger topped this prop in four of six games, and Boston (30.3 shots allowed per 60 in the postseason) were even stingier of a matchup for SOGs than New York (33.1).

I'm not sure the market has fully encapsulated Tarasenko's new role that came about in the Bruins series; he now sits on the left wing of Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart at even strength. The former St. Louis Blues leading scorer also still sees time with the second power-play unit to fire pucks. Tarasenko has now exceeded 15:00 TOI in five of his last six games after eclipsing that mark just once in the Ice Cats' opening series.

numberFire has Tarasenko projected for 2.5 shots on goal in this contest. That mark alone, if correct, would lead to roughly -248 odds for at least two of them.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.