Premier League Betting Picks for Wednesday 1/31/24: Liverpool Set to Host Chelsea

The January transfer window is about to close, but before it does, we have two days of midweek EPL action.

Today, we will be looking at a portion of Matchweek 22 – Wednesday. Wednesday's slate features three matches and is highlighted by a clash between Liverpool and Chelsea.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for Wednesday’s slate?

EPL Betting: Matchweek 22

Chelsea at Liverpool (3:15 p.m. ET Wednesday)

Over 3.5 Goals (+114)

For much of the season, Chelsea has underperformed their underlying metrics. Despite ranking fourth in xGD/90 (+0.57) -- per FBref -- they sit in ninth on the table 12 points behind Aston Villa in fourth place. Recently, that has started to change, the Blues have won three in a row and four of their last five, albeit against an easy schedule. Their recent form faces a huge test on Wednesday with a trip to Anfield.

Current league-leaders Liverpool handled the absences of Mohamed Salah, Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Dominik Szoboszlai with few issues, defeating Bournemouth 4-0 despite an xG scoreline of 1.5-1.4. They have the exceptional play of Darwin Nunez, who scored twice, to thank for that. Alexander-Arnold and Szoboszlai could both be back in action against Chelsea after making substitute appearances in the FA Cup on Sunday.

It all adds up to a clash between two sides that should enter this one feeling confident. While they are having vastly different seasons from a results perspective, the strength of both sides is the same – their ability to generate xG.

Liverpool (2.18) and Chelsea (1.98) rank first and third respectively in xG/90. Liverpool ranks second in goals/90 (2.10) while Chelsea ranks eighth (1.62). The primary cause of Chelsea’s underperformance this season has been their goal scoring, no team has a larger gap between their non-penalty goals and their non-penalty xG than the Blues (-8.2).

While Chelsea has still underperformed their xG totals during their current run of form, they are doing so by a much smaller margin with nine goals from 11.4 xG in their last five matches combined.

Chelsea has actually performed better on the road this season, where they have 17 goals from 18.4 xG. Their 1.84 xG/90 on the road ranks second behind only Manchester City. Liverpool leads the EPL in xG at home this season (28.0), and their 26 home goals rank third.

Liverpool has scored at least three goals in seven of their 10 home fixtures this season, but they have only allowed eight goals. Chelsea has scored in 8 of their 10 away matches this season. Liverpool’s defense will be the toughest task the Blues have faced on the road this season, but on their current form, I think they can get on the scoresheet on Wednesday. Combined with Liverpool’s usual home form, I like this game to go over 3.5 goals.

Brentford at Tottenham (2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday)

Brentford and Draw (+125)

Wednesday’s clash between Tottenham and Brentford comes at an interesting time for both clubs.

Tottenham will be without their captain and top goalscorer, Son Heung-Min, who is on international duty with South Korea. In their first game without Son, Spurs tied Manchester United 2-2 but only managed 1.2 xG facing a United defense that ranks 11th in xG allowed/90 (1.60).

Tottenham have been drastically overperforming their xG metrics all season. They sit in fifth on the table despite an xGD/90 (+0.04) that ranks tenth. At home, their xGD/90 (+0.19) ranks 11th. Continuing to overperform at their current rate would have been difficult even with Son, but without him, it is an even more challenging task. Son has 12 goals from 7.1 xG this season and is responsible for a substantial portion of Spurs’ positive xG difference.

Brentford has the opposite impact happening. Ivan Toney made his season debut in Matchweek 21 after serving an eight-month suspension. He was clinical in his first game back, creating two chances and scoring a goal while playing the full 90.

Toney’s potential impact on the Bees cannot be overstated, he recorded 20 goals and 4 assists in 33 appearances last season, finishing third in the Golden Boot race. He ranked seventh in goals/90 (0.61) and xG/90 (0.57). He is a difference maker for Brentford.

Toney’s return has a chance to make a substantial impact for the Bees because their underlying metrics indicate that they should be higher on the table than they are. Their xGD/90 (+0.37) ranks sixth, a third of a goal better than Spurs’. Despite that, they sit in 14th on the table.

Brentford’s underperformance has been at its worst on the road. They have the third best xGD/90 (+0.38) away from home this season, but they have taken just seven points from nine matches. The difference between Brentford’s non-penalty goals and their non-penalty xG (-6.6) is the third worst in the league. Toney’s return is about as good of a solution as they could ask for to address that problem.

Toney’s return will not help the Bees’ defense, which has allowed 32 non-penalty goals from 25.7 non-penalty xG (+6.3) -- worst in the league. Brentford has done a decent job against elite opponents on the road this season. Against Brighton, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, and Newcastle they allowed an average of just 1.58 xG per match. They have not allowed more than 2.0 xG in an away match this season.

These two sides opened the season with a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture in Matchweek 1. With Son unavailable and Toney back in action, I like Brentford’s chances of getting at least a point on Wednesday.

Prop Bets

Julian Alvarez to Score (-140)

Alvarez has been excellent in his five starts since Erling Haaland suffered a foot injury. Over his last three matches he has combined for 2 goals, 8 shots on target, and 15 shots. Haaland is nearing a return, but this weekend might be too soon for him. If Haaland remains out, Alvarez will also benefit from the service provided by Kevin De Bruyne, who could return to the starting lineup after consecutive substitute appearances. Burnley has allowed the second-most goals (42) in the league this season.

Darwin Nunez to Score (+130)

Nunez has been sensational for Liverpool in their last three matches, combining for three goals, nine shots on target, 13 shots, and eight chances created. He ranks second in non-penalty xG/90 (0.70) this season and is starting to convert those chances more consistently. With Salah still unavailable, the Reds' attack should run through him against Chelsea.

Looking for more soccer betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the soccer odds.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.