Premier League Betting Picks for Tuesday 12/5/23: Arsenal Set to Roll Over Luton

We have our first midweek fixtures of the season, as we head towards the busiest period of the year for Premier League teams.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for Tuesday?

EPL Betting: Tuesday 12/5/23

Burnley at Wolves (2:30 ET)

Under 2.5 goals (-122)

Burnley travels to the midlands to face Wolves in a match between two teams in the lower half of the table. This is certainly a critical game for the visiting team -- as every game is. The Clarets will need to pick up any points they can get to avoid relegation, especially when they aren't playing one of the top teams.

That could lead to Burnley playing fairly conservatively. Picking up even a point away from home would be a pretty good result for them considering they have just seven points this season.

Last weekend, we saw Burnley erupt for five goals in a 5-0 win over Sheffield United. That made up a third of their goals for the Premier League season. Those 15 goals are more than their 13 expected goals (xG), via FBRef. That's the second-fewest xG in the league.

Wolves have scored just 19 goals this season, and that has outperformed their 18.4 xG. Hwang Hee-Chan, in particular, has run hot, scoring seven goals on just 3.7 xG.

Burnley may be the second-worst team in the league, but they aren't too terrible defensively. They've conceded fewer xG than Manchester United and "only" the eighth-most overall.

These aren't teams that play high-scoring games, and they probably won't score many when they see each other on Tuesday.

Arsenal at Luton Town (3:15 ET )

Arsenal to Win Both Halves (+148)

With only two games on Tuesday and one of them being a massive mismatch, we have to get a bit creative with what to bet. We can look at Arsenal to win both halves at +148 as a way to play this game.

Arsenal are currently the league leaders after winning their last three games. They are the second-best team in the EPL in xG differential, so this isn't a fluke. Arsenal are legitimate title contenders this season.

Luton Town are one of the smallest teams we've ever seen in the Premier League. Their promotion was so surprising that they had to have a game postponed because their ground needed to be renovated to get up to EPL standards before they hosted a game.

As great a story as it is for Luton, they've been overwhelmed since making the top flight. They are currently 17th in the Premier League -- but outside the relegation zone only because of Everton's points deduction. Luton have the second-worst xG differential in the league, ahead of only Sheffield United.

Luton has lost each half in a game three times this season. Arsenal have won each half in a game three times, all three against teams at a similar level to Luton. The Gunners are close to full strength and are more used to playing midweek this season than Luton is, so the quick turnaround from Saturday to Tuesday shouldn't impact Arsenal too much.

Everything points to Arsenal rolling to an easy win, and I like this bet as a way to get in on the Gunners.

Player Props

Bukayo Saka to Assist (+170): Since we expect Arsenal to play well against Luton, we can hope for Saka to be a provider for one of the goals. Saka is fourth in the Premier League in expected assists and tied for the fifth-most actual assists with five. He takes corner kicks, too, so there should be lots of opportunities for him to create chances.

Mario Lemina to be Carded (+210): We don't expect many goals in the Burnley-Wolves game, so let's turn to another market. Mario Lemina is tied for the league lead in yellow cards with seven. Despite that, he has only the sixth-best odds to pick up a yellow card in this match. Burnley are a better possession team than their league position would suggest -- as they control the ball 50.6% of the time. That's better than Wolves' 46.7% clip, and if Burnley have the ball more, it could increase the chance that Lemina goes into the book.

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