Pacers vs. Knicks: Series Prediction, Betting Odds

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
Pacers vs. Knicks: Series Prediction, Betting Odds

The Indiana Pacers (47-35) meet the New York Knicks (50-32) in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

In the first round, Indiana and New York took down the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers, respectively, to advance to the second round.

The 6 seed Pacers won two of three regular season meetings with the Knicks, though New York owns home-court advantage as the 2 seed. Game 1 tips off Monday, May 6th from Madison Square Garden.

Let's dive into the NBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and preview this Pacers-Knicks series.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Pacers vs. Knicks Betting Odds: Moneyline, Total Games, and Correct Score

Pacers vs. Knicks Prediction

  • numberFire Prediction:
    • Pacers To Make Conference Finals: 32.4%
    • Knicks To Make Conference Finals: 67.6%
  • ESPN Prediction:
    • Pacers To Make Conference Finals: 42.8%
    • Knicks To Make Conference Finals: 57.2%
  • Opta Analyst Prediction:
    • Pacers To Make Conference Finals: 42.2%
    • Knicks To Make Conference Finals: 57.8%
  • Basketball-Reference Prediction:
    • Pacers To Make Conference Finals: 37.7%
    • Knicks To Make Conference Finals: 62.3%

Pacers vs. Knicks Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

  • Indiana Pacers:
    • nERD: 56.3 (14th)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 120.1 (2nd)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 117.9 (24th)
    • Pace: 102.1 (2nd)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 44-35-3
    • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
      • Rim: 37.2% (3rd) - 65.5% (7th)
      • Mid: 24.7% (7th) - 48.9% (1st)
      • 3PT: 38.0% (20th) - 37.4% (9th)
  • New York Knicks:
    • nERD: 61.3 (7th)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.4 (8th)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 112.8 (8th)
    • Pace: 95.7 (30th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 44-37-1
    • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
      • Rim: 32.7% (23rd) - 60.3% (26th)
      • Mid: 27.0% (20th) - 44.4% (13th)
      • 3PT: 40.4% (11th) - 36.9% (14th)

Pacers vs. Knicks Analysis

After advancing to the Eastern Conference Semifinals, the Knicks have the fifth-shortest odds to win the NBA Championship at +11000. The Pacers have the seventh-shortest odds at +4600. The Knicks own the second-shortest odds to win the Eastern Conference at +320, and the Pacers have the third-shortest odds at +1200.

Even so, New York sports a top-five adjusted net rating while Indiana is second in adjusted offensive rating and pace. Both sides play a distinct style, although Indiana certainly dictated the pace in the regular season meetings between these two. Two of the three games ended with totals north of 235 points while the other didn't reach even 215. Indiana won the two high-scoring affairs while New York took the slugfest.

So, while the Knicks are the betting favorite, this has the makings of a tightly contested series.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are going to push the pace try and get into shootouts. They averaged 113 points per game in the first round despite being held under 95 twice. Indiana hit at least 120 points in all four wins.

Pascal Siakam led the way with 22.3 points per game in the first round, followed by Myles Turner with 19.2. We saw the Knicks deal with Philly's Joel Embiid last round, but Indiana's supporting cast is much better than the Sixers' was. Even though the Pacers' bigs led the team in scoring against Milwaukee, they have plenty of other options.

Tyrese Haliburton is usually the one dictating who scores, but he'll need to turn up the scoring himself if the Pacers want to pull off an upset over New York. He averaged 16.0 points and 9.3 assists against the Bucks, though his field goal percentage (43.5%) and three-point percentage (29.6%) left a lot to be desired.

Thankfully, the role players stepped up to cover Haliburton's inefficiencies. Andrew Nembhard chipped in 13.8 points per game, and he'll likely see a ton of time defending Jalen Brunson this series. Aaron Nesmith rounded out Indiana's starting five with 11.0 points per game in Round 1 and could be an X-factor against the Knicks.

Indiana may not have advanced if not for bench guys Obi Toppin (12.3 points and 5.8 rebounds) and T.J. McConnell (9.5 points and 4.5 assists). The two combined for 41 points in Thursday night's closeout win. This could be an especially intriguing series for Toppin considering New York was the team that drafted him in 2021 before trading him to Indiana last summer.

New York Knicks

The Knicks are going to do everything they can to slow down Indiana, especially given how tight New York's rotation has gotten.

Three players -- Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, and OG Anunoby -- averaged more than 40 minutes per game against the Sixers.

Brunson put up an absurd 35.5 points and 9.0 assists per game last series, attempting 29.2 shots per game. He went for 28, 40, and 39 points in three regular-season meetings against Indiana, so more monster outings seem likely.

Despite averaging fewer than 10 points per game in the regular season, Hart served as the team's second-leading scorer in Round 1. He went for averages of 16.8 points and 12.3 rebounds per game, shooting a blistering 43.2% from three on 6.2 attempts per game.

In my eyes, Anunoby is New York's X-factor. He was quiet in the first two games versus Philly before popping off for 17.3 points per game over the final four. It will be interesting to see how the Knicks utilize one of the league's top defenders. He may spend a lot of time on Siakam, a former teammate.

Donte DiVincenzo and Miles McBride will get looks when Brunson needs a break. That will happen some games more than others. DiVincenzo notched double-digit points just twice in the first-round, but he went for 19 and 23 points in those two. McBride had a 21-point game in the opener but notably played just 9 minutes in Thursday night's closeout win.

Bigs-wise, Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson are probably happy to be done dealing with Embiid. But things don't get that much easier against Indiana -- not when Turner is playing this well. The ability of the Knicks' bigs to hang with the Pacers' frenetic pace will be worth monitoring.

New York should win this series and is -265 to do so, but the Pacers' style of play is going to be a bit of a culture shock after more of a grind-it-out series versus the Sixers. Still, the Pacers struggled at times versus a hobbled Bucks side, so these backyard-dog Knicks will likely prove too tough to handle.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.