Oilers vs. Stars: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 5

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz

In Game 4, the Dallas Stars jumped out to a 2-0 lead and it looked like this series was theirs for the taking. However, the Edmonton Oilers fought back, and won the game 5-2. That sets up the series to head back to Dallas even at two games each.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars

Over 5.5 Goals (-124)

Despite the offensive firepower on these two teams, the first two games of the series each went under 5.5 goals. Those games have kept the over/unders at 5.5 goals for all the games in this series, but it's starting to feel like that's too low.

Game 3 and Game 4 had eight goals and seven goals in them, respectively. Game 3 had 7.02 expected goals (xG) in it. That was the most besides Game 1, which went to double-overtime. In Game 3, Dallas got Roope Hintz back into the lineup. It certainly helps to have the team's second-leading goal scorer on the ice.

It's hard to believe that this series has yet to see a power-play goal on either side through four games -- especially on the Edmonton side, as their power play has a 32.6% success rate in the postseason. If either power play starts to get hot in this game, it would go a long way to sending this game over the total.

In a game involving the Oilers, the total can be reached by a few different X-factors. On the good (for the Oilers) side, it would be Connor McDavid, who had three assists in Game 4. On the bad side, it's Stuart Skinner in net. He has allowed 0.071 goals above expected per 60 minutes.

The model on numberFire gives the over a 57.25% chance of hitting tonight, but the implied odds at -124 are only 55.36%. I like that edge, as there are several reasons to back the over in Game 5.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.