Nuggets vs. Heat Game 1 Betting Odds: Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Player Props

The final chapter of the postseason gets underway on Thursday night with the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat set to clash in NBA Finals.

Game 1 tips off at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

Here's how the Nuggets and Heat stack up heading into Game 1 in Denver.

All NBA odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Nuggets vs. Heat Game 1 Betting Odds: Moneyline, Spread, and Total

• Moneyline:
  • Nuggets: -370
  • Heat: +295
• Spread: Nuggets -9.0 (-110)
• Total: 219.0

Nuggets vs. Heat Game 1 Projections

Win projections via numberFire.

• Win Odds: 74.0% Nuggets

Nuggets vs. Heat Game 1 Player Props: Total Points, and Double Double Odds

• Total Points:
  • Jimmy Butler: 27.5
  • Nikola Jokic: 28.5
  • Jamal Murray: 25.5
  • Bam Adebayo: 16.5
  • Michael Porter Jr.: 15.5
  • Aaron Gordon: 12.5
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: 10.5
  • Gabe Vincent: 12.5
  • Caleb Martin: 16.5
  • Max Strus: 9.5
  • Bruce Brown Jr.: 11.5
  • Duncan Robinson: 8.5
  • Kyle Lowry: 7.5
• To Record a Double Double:
  • Nikola Jokic: -2200
  • Bam Adebayo: +135
  • Jimmy Butler: +195
  • Michael Porter Jr.: +260
  • Caleb Martin: +320
  • Jamal Murray: +600
  • Aaron Gordon: +700
  • Bruce Brown Jr.: +2800

Nuggets vs. Heat Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

• Nuggets:
  • nERD: 60.1 (7th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 116.9 (5th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 114.2 (18th)
  • Pace: 98.5 (21st)
  • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
    • Rim: 39.0% (2nd) - 66.5% (3rd)
    • Mid: 24.9% (12th) - 43.4% (13th)
    • 3PT: 36.1% (21st) - 37.9% (4th)
• Heat:
  • nERD: 47.5 (22nd)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 113.2 (25th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 113.4 (8th)
  • Pace: 96.3 (29th)
  • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
    • Rim: 29.9% (29th) - 62.6% (20th)
    • Mid: 29.4% (24th) - 45.3% (7th)
    • 3PT: 40.8% (9th) - 34.4% (27th)

Nuggets vs. Heat Game 1 Analysis

In the NBA Finals, every win is important, but this year's Game 1 will be particularly important because of the trends the Nuggets and Heat enter the series with.

At stake for Denver in Game 1 is their perfect record at home this postseason. The top-seeded Nuggets are 8-0 at Ball Arena during these playoffs. They started each of their first three series with back-to-back home wins, allowing them to enter their first road game of each series with a 2-0 lead.

Therefore, each of Denver's opponents during these playoffs has been under enormous pressure in their first two home games. The Minnesota Timberwolves crumbled, going down 3-0 with a Game 3 loss before losing in five games. The Phoenix Suns did well, winning back-to-back games to tie the series before ultimately falling in six games. The Los Angeles Lakers never recovered, losing both their home games and getting swept.

Denver's early home wins have set the stage for their success this postseason, keeping them out of pressure situations on the road and forcing their opponents into near must-win contests in Games 3 and 4.

That type of pressure is exactly what the Heat have avoided throughout the playoffs. Despite being the underdog in each series, the Heat are a perfect 3-0 in Game 1s this postseason. Opening each series on the road, Miami has an average margin of victory of nine points in Game 1s.

Their consistent success in Game 1s has allowed them to head back to Miami with homecourt advantage in every series. When playing at home, the Heat are 6-2 this postseason, with both of their losses coming to the Boston Celtics. Miami's streak of series upsets has been built on grabbing homecourt advantage early.

Something has to give in Game 1 on Thursday night -- either the Nuggets or Heat will enter Game 2 down 1-0 in a series for the first time this postseason. With the added pressure of the NBA Finals on their shoulders, both teams would benefit from operating from a familiar position in Game 2.

Stealing homecourt advantage away from Denver would be a huge boost for Miami. With the advantage of a series lead, the Nuggets have been able to play without too much pressure on the road during these playoffs. Doing so has resulted in excellent offensive performances. Denver is averaging the second-most points per road game (117.6) this postseason, the highest team plus/minus (+4.1), the highest field goal percentage (50.3%), and the third-highest three-point shooting percentage (36.7%).

The Heat have also been excellent on the road. Miami is averaging the fifth-most points per road game (113.0), third-highest team plus/minus (+1.0), second-highest field goal percentage (48.6%) and highest three-point shooting percentage (40.3%). For Miami to win Game 1, those numbers will need to hold up in Denver against a Nuggets squad that has been the postseason's best home team.

Game 1 will set the stage for how these NBA Finals play out. Both teams are certainly capable of bouncing back from a 1-0 hole, but entering Game 2, one team will be operating under business as usual while the other will be faced with an unfamiliar, high-pressure situation.

As it stands, the Nuggets are the favorites to win Game 1 and the NBA Finals (-460).

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.