NRFI Bets to Target on Tuesday 4/30/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
NRFI Bets to Target on Tuesday 4/30/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

This matchup features a pair of pitchers who have been stellar over the first month, so we should like their chances of posting a pair of zeroes in the opening inning.

Jon Gray got roughed up in his 2024 debut but has performed well ever since, allowing just three earned runs over his last five appearances (21 innings). Overall, he enters the day with a stellar 3.32 xFIP and 29.1% strikeout rate.

The biggest blemish on his resume is a 10.0% walk rate, but that shouldn't be a concern against the Washington Nationals, as they've compiled a mere 4.6% walk rate in the first inning. The Nats also lack pop, owning the league's second-worst ISO in the first frame (.088). It all lines up for Gray cruising against a lineup that has the league's worst YRFI rate (14.3%).

MacKenzie Gore gets the trickier assignment against the Texas Rangers, but he's also in the midst of a strong campaign. The lefty has compiled a 3.22 xFIP, 28.7% strikeout rate, and 7.4% walk rate, and he's 5-for-5 in NRFIs.

Unlike the Nats, the Rangers have had far more success scoring in the first inning (37.9%), but Gore should get two lefty-lefty matchups, which could help him get through unscathed.

Although Gore has never shown the dominant splits in same-handed matchups that we would like, often struggling with walks, he's recorded a 27.3% strikeout rate in the split this season, so the firepower is there. Nathaniel Lowe and particularly Corey Seager are still plenty dangerous, but we would still rather attack them with a southpaw.

Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-128)

In contrast to the previous matchup, we get the complete opposite pitching scenario elsewhere in Texas, where we find a pair of pitchers off to poor starts.

Hunter Brown has been knocked around for a 6.14 xERA over five starts, and his 4.75 SIERA is only marginally better. Poor marks in both strikeout rate (18.3%) and walk rate (12.9%) leave little room for optimism, too. Similar to last year, despite inducing grounders over half the time, Brown continues to struggle with home runs, already allowing three in just 17 2/3 innings.

The Cleveland Guardians are near the bottom in YRFI rate (17.9%), but we should still like their chances of scoring early against a pitcher performing this badly. The Guardians aren't a team with a ton of power, but Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor are sluggers who could knock one over the fence against Brown.

Even without Cleveland's help, this bet should cash in the bottom half of the inning. The Houston Astros have the fourth-best YRFI rate (42.9%), and their matchup is just as good versus Carlos Carrasco.

Carrasco continues to show he's well past his prime, coming in with a 4.83 SIERA, 18.9% strikeout rate, and 12.3% walk rate. Dating back to last season, he's really struggled against lefties with a 5.52 xFIP, so Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are prime candidates to help us with one swing of the bat.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.