NRFI Bets to Target on Thursday 6/27/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
NRFI Bets to Target on Thursday 6/27/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-120)

This game is showing a middle-of-the-pack 8.5 over/under, but this looks like a spot to target for a YRFI at very reasonable odds.

Southpaw Jordan Montgomery has been a disappointment for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season, and while he's coming off a pair of positive results, this is a tough matchup for him against the Minnesota Twins.

That's because the Twins project to have a full lineup of right-handed batters, and Montgomery is showing a 4.88 xFIP, 14.3% strikeout rate, and 1.42 HR/9 facing that handedness. Minnesota's active roster owns the league's fifth-best wRC+ versus left-handers (126), too, further sweetening the pot.

The Twins have also been a solid first-inning offense, cracking the top 10 in YRFI rate (30.0%).

Flipping over to Arizona's bats, the D-backs have been one of MLB's very best teams to target for a YRFI. Not only have they put up the fourth-best YRFI rate (35.0%), but they've bumped that clip up to 40.0% over their last 25 contests. In the first inning, Arizona has posted the league's second-best wOBA (.393) and third-best ISO (.216).

None of this bodes well for right-hander David Festa, who will be making his MLB debut. Admittedly, this isn't to say Festa will simply roll over, though, as the top prospect has recorded a 3.13 xFIP and 35.1% strikeout rate over 14 Triple-A starts this season.

Still, this is a tough draw for the 24-year-old, and despite the obvious firepower he's displayed in the minors, walks (9.7% BB rate) and dingers (1.36 HR/9) have come with it. Even if Festa ultimately excels in his debut, some early nerves could be all we need for the Diamondbacks to come through for us.

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-113)

While the New York Yankees have been going through a rough patch lately, this is still an offense we want to target for YRFIs as the league leaders in YRFI rate (39.0%). In the opening inning, the Yankees rank first in wOBA (.409), ISO (.277), and walk rate (14.2%).

Losing Giancarlo Stanton's power bat to a hamstring injury stings a bit, but Aaron Judge and Juan Soto alone make this such a formidable first-inning offense. Judge easily has the slate's shortest odds to hit a home run (+200), and Soto's +330 odds would be among the shortest in most other games.

They'll take their hacks against Jose Berrios to begin this one. A strong start to this campaign has slowly come undone for Berrios as he's posted a 5.56 ERA across four June starts. His season-long ERA now sits at 3.43, and further regression could be coming as he creeps closer to his 4.77 xERA and 4.36 SIERA.

Berrios' strikeout ability has been especially lackluster (17.5% K rate) this year, which has contributed to him giving up 1.58 HR/9 off a 38.2% fly-ball rate. We should like our chances of Judge and/or Soto helping our cause.

We continue to find the Toronto Blue Jays near the bottom in YRFI rate (13.9%), which is partially why we aren't paying a premium for this wager. But the Blue Jays might not be completely hopeless against left-hander Carlos Rodon.

While Rodon has enjoyed a bounce-back campaign, he's nowhere near the peak form we saw from 2021-22, and he's been roughed up in back-to-back outings. He's also converted a NRFI in just 62.5% of his starts.

Rodon's been vulnerable versus right-handed batters, against whom he's logged a 4.53 xFIP, 21.9% strikeout rate, 49.5% fly-ball rate, and 1.47 HR/9. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could be finally starting to heat up after homering three times over the last two series, and he's +370 to hit a home run tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.