NRFI Bets to Target on Monday 6/10/24

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
NRFI Bets to Target on Monday 6/10/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-104)

There could be runs scored early in Monday's bout between the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers with Jose Berrios and Colin Rea on the bump. Berrios is no longer the strikeout pitcher he once was, recording the lowest strikeout rate (18.9%) and swinging strike rate (8.3%) of his career since his rookie year in 2016.

In the first inning of games, Berrios is allowing a .290 BABIP, 1.23 WHIP, and .343 wOBA in his first 13 starts. Even though Berrios owns a 9-4 NRFI record on the year, he is 3-4 in road contests.

Berrios is giving up a .325 wOBA and 1.25 WHIP to righties, compared to a .281 wOBA and 0.96 WHIP to lefties. During Monday's showdown, Berrios could face two right-handed hitters early with William Contreras and Willy Adames expected to hit high in the batting order.

On the other hand, Rea has been even worse in the opening frame of games. Across 10 starts this season, Rea is permitting a .371 BABIP, 2.10 WHIP, .464 wOBA, and just a 15.4% strikeout rate in the first inning.

As a result of his woes to begin contests, Rea is producing a dismal 4-6 NRFI record -- including a 1-4 record at home. Rea has given up at least one earned run in the first inning in each of his last three starts.

The one concern with taking YRFI in this matchup is the fact the Brewers are logging the 12th-fewest runs (29) and the Blue Jays are scoring the third-fewest runs (20) in the first inning. That being said, both pitchers have struggled out of the gate at times and there is decent value in taking at least one run to be scored in the first frame.

Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-136)

Monday's clash between the Oakland Athletics and San Diego Padres pits two teams against each other who are on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to the first inning. For the Padres, they are sporting the third-best wOBA (.368), third-best wRC+ (146), and third-best ISO (.212), which has resulted in the second-most runs scored (48) in the first inning in all of baseball.

However, the Athletics are registering the second-worst wOBA (.232), second-worst wRC+ (53), and second-worst ISO (.097) in the first frame of contests thus far. Oakland's woes in the first inning should benefit a pitcher like Dylan Cease in this matchup.

Cease is currently holding an elite 2.73 xFIP and 31.5% strikeout rate in the first inning, although it's helped him muster up a mediocre 7-6 NRFI record. Two of the first three players in Oakland's projected lineup are producing a wOBA of .298 or worse versus right-handed pitching.

Taking an inexperienced pitcher to shut out the Padres in the opening frame could be risky, but Joey Estes has held his own to begin games. Estes has earned a 4-1 NRFI record -- with a 3-0 record on the road -- while logging the fifth-best xFIP (2.04) and 17th-highest strikeout rate (35.0%) in the first inning among pitchers with five-plus starts in 2024.

There is certainly more confidence in Cease keeping the Athletics contained as they are recording the worst wOBA (.278), third-worst wRC+ (84), and the highest strikeout rate (27.7%) in the last 30 days. It will likely come down to whether or not Estes can continue setting the tone in the first inning against a Padres team that has looked much better at the plate recently.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.