NRFI Bets to Target on Monday 5/20/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-132)

Starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Sonny Gray have both performed well this year, setting this game up for a potential NRFI matchup to target.

Gray has amassed a stellar 2.46 xFIP, 31.9% strikeout rate, and 4.8% walk rate with St. Louis, and he's logged a NRFI in 6 of 7 starts. While the Orioles will throw a lefty-heavy lineup at the right-hander, that shouldn't be an issue because Gray has been excellent against both sides of the plate this season. Baltimore has been in the middle of the pack at recording YRFIs, too, as their 25.0% clip is tied for 17th.

Kremer hasn't quite been at Gray's level in 2024, but he's produced a solid 3.76 xFIP, 25.3% strikeout rate, and 8.1% walk rate. Most importantly for us, he's converted a NRFI in all eight of his outings. The righty will also benefit from a matchup against an underwhelming Cardinals offense that's 26th in YRFI rate (19.6%).

It's worth noting that Kremer has not been as strong facing lefties this season (4.34 xFIP; 21.6% K rate) and will likely see Lars Nootbaar and either Brendan Donovan or Matt Carpenter occupying the first two slots in the order. But Nootbaar is the only real power threat of this trio, and he's just +540 to hit a home run tonight.

In fact, it's telling that Nolan Gorman, St. Louis' projected number-seven hitter, has the shortest odds between both teams to hit a home run at +400, further suggesting that this should be a low-scoring affair.

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-125)

The Houston Astros aren't an offense we often want to trifle with for a NRFI, but this matchup against the Los Angeles Angels is showing is fairly low 8.0 over/under, and Angels southpaw Reid Detmers has encouraging underlying numbers despite poor recent results.

Following a strong start to his campaign, Detmers has seen his ERA balloon to 5.19, yet he's still showing a 3.67 xFIP and 3.46 xERA. Of particular note, even with his struggles, he's still managed a NRFI in all nine of his starts.

The main danger for Detmers is the left-handed duo of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, who both remain lethal in same-handed matchups. While the results have been particularly unkind to Detmers against lefties this season, we again see a promising xFIP (3.89), and he's made significant strides in K rate, boasting a 32.2% clip in the split.

While it remains to be seen whether the 24-year-old can right the ship tonight, his peripherals point to positive regression, and we need just one inning of that to get us through.

On the other side, Framber Valdez is an easy sell versus the Angels. Valdez has put up a 3.06 xFIP and 66.0% ground-ball rate through six starts, and been a perfect 6 for 6 in NRFIs.

The left-hander will be up against a predominantly right-handed lineup -- projected leadoff hitter Nolan Schanuel might be the only lefty stick -- but Valdez has produced his season-long marks while facing just 18 lefties all season (compared to 128 righties), so this is nothing new. The Angels are 19th in YRFI rate (23.4%), and that number is down to 12.0% over their last 25 games.

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