NRFI Best Bets to Target on Thursday 8/8/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets Today

Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-102)

This matchup has one of the lowest over/unders on the board (7.5), so this might seem like an unusual spot for a YRFI, particularly in loanDepot park, a venue that suppresses home runs. However, at near-even odds, I'm willing to take a chance here because of Miami Marlins right-hander Kyle Tyler, who's one of Thursday's shakiest starters.

Over six starts (seven appearances), Tyler has put up a 6.11 xERA, 5.01 SIERA, 18.0% strikeout rate, and 13.1% walk rate. Outside of a 53.0% ground-ball rate, it's hard to find positives in his profile.

With numbers like that, it isn't surprising that the righty has struggled in the first inning, logging a NRFI in just two of his six starts.

The Cincinnati Reds have a solid 27.2% YRFI rate, and the dynamic Elly De La Cruz should have an easier path to wreaking havoc against a pitcher with poor marks in both strikeout and walk rate. De La Cruz boasts a .237 ISO and continues to lead the league in stolen bases (54), giving him multiple paths toward crossing home plate.

Right-hander Hunter Greene is less likely to have trouble shutting down the Marlins' bats with his 28.1% K rate, though he does issue too many walks (9.4% BB rate) and is probably lucky to be allowing just a 6.8% HR/FB rate off a 47.3% fly-ball rate.

If someone's going to come through on Miami's side, it's right-handed batter Jake Burger. Greene actually has less imposing marks in xFIP (4.27) and strikeout rate (25.3%) in same-handed matchups, and Burger has the shortest odds to hit a home run (+440) in this matchup. Burger is fresh off slugging two bombs on Wednesday.

Miami has secured a YRFI in 4 of their last 10 games, too, so it's not like they've completely disappeared since unloading at the trade deadline.

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-118)

These offenses have been excellent in the first inning lately, with both teams logging YRFIs in 40.0% of their last 25 games. Over the past 30 days in the first inning, both teams have been inside the top 5 in wOBA and top 10 in ISO.

Given that neither Kevin Gausman nor Dean Kremer have been particularly dominant on the mound this season, we should like the chances of the bats submitting another YRFI tonight.

While Gausman has thrown the occasional gem, he's been rather ordinary more often than not with a 5.09 xERA and 22.4% strikeout rate. His 4.04 xFIP brings about a bit more optimism, but the fact is he's giving up a ton of hard contact (4th percentile in barrel rate) and isn't getting the swings and misses of recent campaigns when he was hovering between a 28-31% K rate.

The right-hander's dip in performance has carried over into the first inning where he has an underwhelming 68.1% NRFI rate. Likely No. 2 Orioles hitter Anthony Santander has hit three dingers over the past six games and has a game-best +310 odds to hit a home run.

After missing over a month on the injured list, Kremer has put up a middling 4.95 xFIP, 18.8% strikeout rate, and 9.4% walk rate over his last six starts. Although the righty has still managed a NRFI in five of those outings, his 4.64 xFIP the first time through the order suggests he's been more lucky than good.

Kremer was putting up solid numbers in same-handed matchups before his injury, but he's managed just a 15.8% K rate in the split since returning. That should boost the likelihood of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doing damage, who's produced a .444 wOBA and .320 ISO going back to the beginning of June.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.