NRFI Best Bets to Target on Tuesday 7/23/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets

Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-125)

Zack Wheeler is slated to make his 20th start of the campaign for the Philadelphia Phillies, which means we need to keep an eye on a NRFI in Tuesday's contest against the Minnesota Twins.

Currently, Wheeler ranks in the 91st percentile in xERA (2.89), 90th percentile in xBA (.205), 79th percentile in strikeout rate (27.0%), 77th percentile in barrel rate (6.0%), and 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate (31.5%).

Wheeler tends to excel at the beginning of his starts, logging an elite 2.66 xFIP, 0.74 WHIP, and 28.8% strikeout rate in the first inning. Those metrics have helped Wheeler tally a fantastic 17-2 NRFI record in 2024 while the Twins have gone eight consecutive games without scoring in the opening frame.

On the other side, Simeon Woods Richardson is another pitcher who performs well at the start of games. In the first inning, Richardson has notched a solid 3.32 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, and 29.5% strikeout rate through his first 16 starts.

Facing the Phillies can be a daunting task for opposing pitchers, but they have the sixth-highest strikeout rate (25.1%) against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Besides having a potential increased chance to earn some Ks in the first inning, Richardson has an excellent 15-1 NRFI record up to this point.

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-113)

Backing a NRFI at Wrigley Field can be perilous, but there are trends that suggest we can place some trust in the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs supplying zero earned runs in the opening inning on Tuesday.

When looking at first inning numbers for Colin Rea, they are far from impressive. Rea is registering a forgettable 4.57 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, and just a 14.9% strikeout rate in the first frame through his first 16 starts, resulting in a dismal 9-7 NRFI record.

At the same time, Rea tends to keep the ball out of the air with a stellar 47.3% groundball rate and 29.1% flyball rate in the first inning, which could come in handy versus a Cubs team that hasn't scored in the opening frame in five consecutive games.

Meanwhile, Taillon has been better than Rea in the first inning, sporting a formidable 3.10 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, and 25.8% strikeout rate across 16 starts. Aside from having a respectable 12-4 NRFI record, Taillon gets to face a Brewers squad that has the 12th-lowest wOBA (.294), 12th-lowest wRC+ (89), 9th-lowest ISO (.132), and 5th-highest strikeout rate (26.9%) in the first inning this year.

Just to add on to that, Milwaukee owns the highest groundball rate (48.0%) and second-lowest flyball rate (31.5%) in the opening frame of games. This should aid Taillon in keeping the ball out of the air and help him achieve a NRFI in Tuesday's NL Central matchup.

Dinger Tuesday is back! Place a pre-live, straight "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game happening July 23rd. You’ll get Bonus Bets for each home run BOTH TEAMS hit in the game! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.