NRFI Best Bets to Target on Friday 7/12/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-122)

Rain could delay the start to this game, but if they're able to play, this looks like a great option for a YRFI.

The New York Yankees have been going through a lengthy rough patch, but they remain a team we like to have on our side for first-inning runs. New York ranks third in YRFI rate (37.2%) this season and has still put up a strong 32.0% clip over their last 25 games.

Facing left-hander Cade Povich will only further increase the Yankees' chances of getting on the board right away. Over six starts, Povich has amassed an ugly 5.99 xFIP, 14.0% strikeout rate, and 10.4% walk rate, and he's coughed up 1.95 HR/9 off a 51.1% fly-ball rate. He's converted a NRFI in just two of those six starts and has been scored upon in four straight first innings.

Aaron Judge can seal the deal for us with one swing of the bat, and as is often the case, he has the shortest odds for a home run (+210) on the entire slate.

The Baltimore Orioles offense will see right-hander Gerrit Cole in the opening frame, and while that would be an obvious negative in past seasons, that might not be the case tonight.

Since coming off the injured list in June, Cole has posted a 5.90 xERA and 5.08 xFIP over four starts while being well off his career averages in strikeout rate (24.1%), walk rate (10.1%), and ground-ball rate (28.0%). He's allowed a run in two of his four first innings, too.

Baltimore has curiously been a below-average team in YRFI rate (25.0%), but they've picked things up over their last 25 games (32.0%) and should continue to move up the leaderboards as one of the league's top overall offenses.

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-130)

Both the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals are near the bottom in YRFI rate, ranking 23rd (22.3%) and 26th (19.6%), respectively, and we should expect their first-inning struggles to continue tonight.

Cardinals right-hander Sonny Gray is pretty easy to buy into, as he comes into the day with a 2.75 xFIP, 31.1% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate. He's had a long history of suppressing home runs, and this campaign is no different (0.78 HR/9). No Cubs hitter has shorter than +600 odds to hit a home run.

Gray has an 81.3% NRFI rate over his 16 starts and should be in line to tally another one on Friday.

The Cubs have Kyle Hendricks taking the mound, and considering his 7.53 ERA, he's the part of the equation that might give you pause.

However, despite the ugly ERA, Hendricks has a less worrisome 4.31 xFIP, and some positive regression could be coming for him in BABIP (.333), strand rate (57.3%), and HR/FB rate (19.1%), as all of those marks are worse than his career averages.

The veteran righty has never been much of a strikeout pitcher (16.6% K rate in 2024), but he's typically put the clamps down on hard contact, and he's still doing that with a 95th percentile hard-hit rate and 96th percentile average exit velocity.

Finally, in his 11 starts, he's produced an 81.8% NRFI rate. This doesn't seem to be a fluke, either, because in his first time through the order over those starts, he's managed a 3.29 xFIP and 26.3% strikeout rate.

While Hendrick is no doubt past his peak, he's still doing enough right to have faith in him against a weaker opponent like St. Louis.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.