NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Sunday 1/21/24

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Lukas Dostal, Ducks ($7,100)

If the Anaheim Ducks are indeed tanking, they did a masterful job to save Lukas Dostal ($7,100) for tonight's tougher matchup as John Gibson impossibly stopped just 14 of 18 shots against the lowly San Jose Sharks on Saturday.

From a DFS perspective, I'm glad they did. Dostal, one of the league's hottest goaltenders, will get to square off with a New York Rangers squad that presents a nice balance of shot volume and lack of elite goal-scoring danger. New York is 15th in Corsi generated per 60 minutes (60.8) and 13th in goals scored per 60 (3.17).

While they should get a ton of pucks on goal against Anaheim (64.2 Corsi allowed per 60), Dostal can stop them. In the past 30 days, Dostal ranks 9th of 68 qualifying goaltenders in goals saved above expectation (6.04 GSAx).

numberFire's model has Dostal pegged for 16.4 FanDuel points on Sunday, making him one of the top point-per-dollar options on this four-game slate.

Stacks

Dallas Stars

I couldn't have imagined a world last season where I'd have stacked against Ilya Sorokin, but it's a supremely realistic world in 2024.

Sorokin might finally have broken down from the enormous shot volume the New York Islanders require him to face. New York's 70.0 Corsi allowed per 60 minutes is second-worst in the NHL and only ahead of San Jose. Ilya has responded with a porous -3.69 GSAx in the past month of play.

With the Dallas Stars in town, it could be another rough outing for Sorokin. Dallas' top trio isn't in full force with Joe Pavelski currently demoted to the third line, but there are still talented scorers like Jason Robertson ($8,600) and Roope Hintz ($7,600) on the top line.

For corollary purposes, you might even be inclined to turn to the Stars' second line where Matt Duchene ($7,600), Tyler Seguin ($6,700), Evgeni Dadonov ($4,200), and Nils Lundkvist ($4,200) skate together in all ice conditions.

Whichever four skaters are selected, Big D has the friendliest matchup on this slate by a mile.

Detroit Red Wings

Name value aside, the Tampa Bay Lightning are a friendly matchup in fantasy hockey right now. Again, this isn't 2023 anymore.

Tampa Bay is allowing the 13th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.12) from their skaters, and the struggling Andrei Vasilevskiy isn't picking up the pieces. He's posted -1.23 GSAx in the past 30 days and has truly never found his footing following the early-season injury.

The Detroit Red Wings can take advantage. Detroit's top line is familiar and in full force at present. Stud center Dylan Larkin ($9,200) anchors Lucas Raymond ($5,900) and veteran David Perron ($4,700) in all ice conditions. At even strength, Moritz Seider ($5,600) joins this group on the blue line yet is replaced by Shayne Gostisbehere ($5,800) on the power play. Both can work to round out this stack.

Most might turn to the visiting Bolts, but Detroit's Alex Lyon (2.25 GSAx) has played well this season. The home team actually has the friendlier defensive matchup here.

Value Skaters

Jordan Eberle, W, Kraken ($5,200)

Anytime the Toronto Maple Leafs are on a back-to-back, we need to pay attention. Luckily, the worst team to stack in NHL DFS faces them today, so we were able to target Dallas and Detroit instead.

Toronto is forced toward Ilya Samsonov in these situations, and Samsonov has been -- without exaggeration -- the worst goaltender in the sport this year in terms of GSAx (-13.69). He's a plum spot whenever the nod comes, but if anyone could give him a solid day at the office, it's the Seattle Kraken.

Seattle is not only tied for the third-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes this season (2.81), but they're currently down bodies and their line combinations still have no tangible correlation between even strength and the power play. For instance, Jordan Eberle ($5,200) and Jared McCann ($6,400) skate on the team's first even-strength and power-play units, but no one else meets that description.

It's just impossible to finish the stack with pieces that truly correlate to make it worth it. Eberle is projected for a modest 9.0 FanDuel points at his salary, but I see the Krak as one-off pieces only.

Cam Fowler, D, Ducks ($4,500)

If you've noticed anything about the three featured offenses so far, it's that none of them have defensemen that fully correlate to their scoring forwards. It's a great day to punt the blue line, and if you want a guy on the ice a ton for his salary, Cam Fowler ($4,500) ends that search.

Anaheim's lack of defensive depth has the veteran pounding minutes. He's posted an insane 26:32 TOI average in January, including spending nearly a half hour on the ice (29:36) on Tuesday. It's really hard to not score FanDuel points skating that often.

Fowler's production usually suffers at the hands of the Ducks' weak offense, but they have a decent shot to score today. New York's Igor Shesterkin has waffled to -1.49 GSAx in the past 30 days.

The former All-Star has topped 10 FanDuel points in three of his last four games, skating with the top line at even strength and the second line on the power play. You could do far worse for $4,500.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.