NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Sunday 1/14/24

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Darcy Kuemper, Washington Capitals ($7,900)

This two-game slate is fairly gnarly, but we can get "different" quickly in goal.

Igor Shesterkin has struggled lately to the point where you should be wary about locking him in at $8,600. The New York Rangers have lost four in a row, including the first of this home-and-home series with the Washington Capitals on Saturday. Shesterkin has had his hand in it, posting -1.12 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in the past month of play.

In fact, the only goaltender on the slate with a positive mark in the past 30 days is Washington's Darcy Kuemper ($7,900). The former Stanley Cup champ with the Colorado Avalanche has posted an improved .889 save rate along with 0.58 GSAx in the period.

The other game on this slate between the Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs figures to be a full-blown shootout, so these are effectively your choices in goal. We'll take the better form at the lower salary.

Stack

Detroit Red Wings

The NHL odds at FanDuel show -150 juice on a 6.5-goal over in Wings-Leafs, so this will be where you want to draw most of your offense from on this slate.

That's because two of the very worst goaltenders in the sport recently will duel. In the past 30 days, Toronto's Ilya Samsonov has the third-worst GSAx (-8.53) in the NHL, and Detroit's James Reimer (-6.19 GSAx) has the sixth-worst mark.

With this in mind, the Maple Leafs carry extremely high salaries by default, but I'd peg Detroit's scoring potential similar at lower marks across the board. Plus, there's full correlation of their top stack with Dylan Larkin ($8,500), Lucas Raymond ($6,400), Shayne Gostisbehere ($5,600), and David Perron ($4,700) joined at the hip in all conditions.

I want to prioritize these four at an average salary of $6,300, and whichever Maple Leafs studs pair with them sporting any correlation are fine.

Value Skaters

John Carlson, D, Washington Capitals ($6,600)

Though not a traditional value play, John Carlson ($6,600) has a floor I wouldn't blame anyone for including at defense. He's topped 13 FanDuel points in four of his last five games.

That'll typically be the case anchoring the Capitals' top even-strength and power-play defense tandem. The 34-year-old is also still pounding a hefty TOI average (24:53) due to Washington's lack of depth on the back end.

Hockey can be random, so keep in mind most of the field will be targeting Wings and Leafs in tournaments. Pivoting to the other game should this slate get wonky could pay dividends, and Carlson -- projected by numberFire for 10.6 FanDuel points -- would be a key piece on the blue line when doing so.

Tyler Bertuzzi, W, Toronto Maple Leafs ($4,800)

I typically avoid second lines on full slates because we want the best possible roles in a random scoring sport, but there are very few ways to be creative on two-game slates without them.

Tyler Bertuzzi ($4,800) is an interesting value plug facing his former team when you're stacking Wings and plucking at the Maple Leafs remaining. Bertuzzi joins the prolific tandem of William Nylander ($10,200) and John Tavares ($9,000) at even strength before dipping to Toronto's second power-play unit with reserves.

The reality of building is that you probably aren't getting Detroit's top-four options and three Leafs studs. Bertuzzi provided 5-on-5 correlation with a couple of them and some power-play time of his own.

Oh yeah, he's also numberFire's sixth-best projected value play of the day (per dollar of salary) at 10.1 FanDuel points.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.