NHL Betting Picks for Monday 12/4/23: Can the Golden Knights Take Care of Business?

Our week starts with a strong six-game slate packed with some enticing NHL bets.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning

Stars +1.5 (-260)

Despite being the away team, the Dallas Stars should be the top dogs heading into tonight's contest with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Stars are sitting at 14-5-3 while the Bolts have underwhelmed at 10-10-5. The return of Andrei Vasilevskiy was supposed to be the change in the season for Tampa Bay, and while he still may, it certainly hasn't as the former Vezina Trophy winner has struggled. In his last game on Saturday against this same Stars team, Vasilevskiy allowed 6 goals on 25 shots before being pulled for Jonas Johansson. On the season, Vasilevskiy has a 3.87 goals against average and .859 save percentage. Advanced metrics are all the worse as the netminder has a -3.37 goals saved above expectation (GSAx).

This isn't to say that Vasilevskiy won't be getting back on track tonight, but considering his numbers and recent track record against Dallas, it's hard to side with anyone but the Stars.

Dallas will be sending out Jake Oettinger. The 24-year-old has been one of hockey's best this year with his 2.43 goals against average and .920 save percentage jumping off the page. The Stars' goalie also has posted 6.53 GSAx.

Both offenses rank rather similar for the Stars and Lightning. Dallas has a 61.04 Corsi For per 60 minutes while the Lightning are just a tick above at 61.97. The same goes with goals; it's the Stars that have a slight advantage with an average of 3.5 goals per 60. Tampa Bay has posted 3.29.

The biggest difference between these two teams is in limiting the other team. The Stars are averaging just 2.74 goals against -- ranking eighth in the NHL. At 3.69 goals against, Tampa Bay ranks 30th. It gives us all the confidence for tonight as a result.

We're taking the Stars to cover +1.5, which numberFire's model gives a 77.66% likelihood of hitting.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers

Under 6.5 (-122)

A Metropolitan Division matchup should make for a competitive battle tonight.

The Pittsburgh Penguins and the Philadelphia Flyers have been far too similar this year -- especially for the Penguins' liking. The Flyers have one more win (12) than the Pens this season, totaling 26 points on the year compared to the Penguins' 24 points. There's an argument to say that the Flyers have overperformed and the Penguins have underperformed -- at least in the win-loss column. When it comes down to the stats, it's clear which team is the better of the two.

Pittsburgh is fourth in Corsi For per 60 minutes (66.18) but has just 3.11 goals per 60 minutes to show for it. Philadelphia, on the other hand, is ranked 15th in the NHL for Corsi For per 60 (60.88) and is averaging only 2.89 goals per 60. The Penguins haven't found their luck in potting goals, leading us to the under tonight.

Both teams have limited their opposition to under three goals per game. The Penguins have held teams to 2.59 goals against (7th), and the Flyers have held them to 2.85 Goals Against (11th).

The under should also be supported by the goaltending with Tristan Jarry and Carter Hart expected to be between the pipes for each team. Jarry has been outstanding, ranking 10th in both goals against average (2.47) and save percentage (.918). Hart has been good, too. He has a 2.68 goals against average and .909 save percentage.

numberFire's model likes it more than the implied probability (53.5%), expecting fewer than seven goals 59.52% of the time.

St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights

Golden Knights -1.5 (+120)

I was originally going to side with the Vegas Golden Knights' moneyline, but the odds on them covering -1.5 make it the better bite tonight.

The Golden Knights are riding a two-game winning streak, earning 4-1 victories in back-to-back games. They'll take on the St. Louis Blues in what may be a one-sided tilt for Vegas.

St. Louis has been able to surprise a bit, breaking out to a 12-10-1 record, but the 16-5-4 Golden Knights have shown to be the top team in the NHL time and time again this season. The Blues have had a tough time putting together offensive opportunities, establishing a 54.95 Corsi For per 60 minutes which ranks 28th in the NHL. Despite the dominance of the Golden Knights as an overall team, they only have a 19th-ranked 59.62 Corsi For, but that's all they needed thus far.

The major differential between these two teams comes via goals for and against. Vegas has the edge in both categories. The Golden Knights are averaging 3.1 goals per 60 -- which is middle of the pack -- but just 2.27 Goals Against, ranking second. The Blues are 23rd with an average of 2.89 goals per 60 minutes while allowing 3.11 goals against per 60.

Vegas will be starting Logan Thompson tonight, and the Blues will roll with Jordan Binnington.

Thompson has been great once again through 12 games, posting a 2.36 goals against average and .918 save percentage. Thompson ranks 10th in the NHL with a 9.02 GSAx, showing his ability to come up big for the Golden Knights. Binnington has been good with a 2.98 goals against average, .910 save percentage, and 4.76 GSAx. The edge still goes to the Golden Knights, however.

Vegas is 7-5 against the spread (ATS) at home; they'll look to notch another cover tonight.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.