NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 10/29/23

It's a quiet Sunday (as most are in the NHL during NFL season), but we've still got four NHL contests on deck.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

San Jose Sharks at Washington Capitals

Over 6.5 (+124)
Alex Ovechkin Anytime Goal (-105)

The Washington Capitals are -230 home favorites for tonight's game against the winless San Jose Sharks, so there's not a ton of drama in this outcome. We should see some offense, though.

San Jose's biggest issue is their defense, ceding the second-most expected goals in the NHL (4.11) to this point. Mackenzie Blackwood has only been able to do so much, amassing a decent 1.48 goals saved above expectation (GSAx), but there's a reason he's got such a poor .899 save percentage.

On the other side of the coin, the Caps' defense (2.99 expected goals allowed per 60 minutes) has been pretty solid, but they've had issues with their goaltender. Darcy Kuemper (0.10 GSAx) hasn't been close to the top-15 goaltender he was by GSAx a year ago.

If we're expecting offense, there's a good chance that Alex Ovechkin is involved. The veteran winger has 30 shots on goal during the young season, but he's only scored twice -- good for a 6.7 shot percentage. Of course, the legend shot 14.3% from the ice last year and has posted several seasons north of 15.0%. As he's shooting, he'll score more soon across Washington's top even-strength and power-play lines.

Minnesota Wild at New Jersey Devils

Over 6.5 (-122)
Kirill Kaprizov Anytime Goal (+115)

I would have expected both of these clubs to be defensive stalwarts, but this is why we play the games.

Thus far, these are both bottom-15 teams in expected goals allowed per 60, and netminders that dominated last postseason have struggled badly. Of 63 qualifying goalies, Filip Gustavsson of the Minnesota Wild ranks 57th (-3.34 GSAx). He's just one spot behind Vitek Vanecek (-2.48 GSAx) of the New Jersey Devils.

We've got two middling defenses with poor goalies, and that's led to two of top-five leakiest teams in terms of goals allowed per 60 minutes thus far. Sometimes the end results are backed up by underlying peripherals.

If we're expecting offense here, Kirill Kaprizov of the Wild is likely to be involved. Like Ovi, he's got the premier scoring role on Minnesota's top lines, which has led to 31 shots in 8 games. Kaprizov's 6.5% shot percentage also lags well behind his 2022-23 mark (15.6%), so a back-and-forth shootout could be exactly what he needs to light the lamp.

Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers

Flames ML (+136)

This line might be an overreaction to Connor McDavid's return. I can't explain it any other way.

When looking at the skaters of the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers, it's pretty close. Edmonton has a 52.4% expected-goals-for rate (xGF%), which is the 11th-best mark in the NHL. You'd have to think McDavid will only elevate that mark, but Calgary's xGF% (51.3%) is pretty solid and not far behind.

These teams significantly seperate in goal, though.

After finishing second in Vezina Trophy voting in 2021-22, Jacob Markstrom has regained his form following a down 2022-23 season. He's currently third in overall GSAx (6.67) across the entire league. Edmonton would do just about anything to just toward the league average in that area. Both of their goalies sit in the bottom 13 of the league in GSAx, and tonight's projected starter, Stuart Skinner, has been especially terrible (-5.01 GSAx).

I'd actually slightly favor the Flames in this spot, so these 42.4% implied odds to win are far too low.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.